A similar study, by the Zimbabwe Institute46, made similar points in respect of the way in which MDC members of parliament have been treated by the Mugabe regime, practices which even drew the condemnation of the International Parliamentary Union47, and which continue today. This brief reference to POSA is made in order to highlight a changed tactic of in the repression, and a move away from blunt violence to intimidation, most probably in response to the enormous criticism that the regime was experiencing from the exposure of the violations. However, it is apparent that there was a strong return to the use of blunt violence in 2007 and 2008, with reports of abductions, assaults, murder, and torture all increasing. Torture shows a steady decline from the peak of 2000, but shows an increase from 2005. There are very dramatic increases in unlawful arrests and detentions, and most dramatically from 2005. There is a large increase in displacements in 2005, presumably all associated with Operation Murambatsvina, but then a subsequent decline, whilst interference with basic freedoms shows a steady increase from 2004 onwards. It is pertinent here to point out that there have been frequent references to the relationship between elections and gross human rights violations, but infrequent analysis that could establish whether this was a deliberate tactic in respect of elections48. A quick analysis of the Human Rights Forum’s data with reference to elections confirms the view that gross human rights violations are more common during elections than at other times. Such violations are also more common at times when the state is threatened by public dissent, such as during strikes, stay aways, and protests. As can be seen from Table 11, there are significant relationships between the frequency of some types of violation and elections. The Human Rights Forum data was then categorized into months in which there were elections, and months in which these did not occur. This gave 22 months in which “elections” had occurred, with a total number of 15,530 violations reported, and 67 months in which 24,467 violations were reported. The difference between “election” and “non-election” months was strongly statistically significant: this is not a mere trend, but rather a clear and empirically verified pattern of violations. As can be seen from Table 3, torture, political discrimination, death threats, interference with basic freedoms, property violations, assaults, and abductions are all significantly more frequent during “election” months, and the average number of violations during election months is nearly double that reported in other months. It seems fair to conclude that this represents a deliberate strategy, and, if not, certainly not a situation that the Zimbabwe Government has avoided, and rather mostly condoned. TABLE 3 Comparison of “Election” and “Non-election” months, July 2001 to December 2008. Source: Reports of the Human Rights Forum. ELECTION NO ELECTION Abductions 344* 259 Arrest & detention 2137* 7402 Assault 2454* 2216 Attempted murder 18* 14 Death threats 136* 65 Disappearance 5 28 Displacement 846 861 Interference with basic freedoms 2805 7749 Murder 131* 77 Political discrimination 3101* 2964 Property violation 1028* 879 Rape 15* 12 School closure 27* 6 Torture 2483* 1935 Total 15530* 24467 Monthly average: 705.9 365.2 *statistically significant at p=0.01 or greater 46 47 48 See Zimbabwe Institute (2004), “Playing with fire”. Personal accounts of human rights abuses experienced by 50 opposition Members of Parliament in Zimbabwe, and 28 opposition election candidates. March 2004. See IPU (2004), Committee on the Human Rights of Parliamentarians: Report of its mission to Zimbabwe, 28 March - 2 April 2004. GENEVA: INTERNATIONAL PARLIAMENTARY UNION. See Reeler, A.P., & Chitsike, K.C (2005), Trick or Treat? The effects of the pre-election climate on the poll in the 2005 Zimbabwe Parliamentary Elections. June 2005. PRETORIA: IDASA; NCA, The 2005 Parliamentary Election. Flawed, Unfree and Unfair! April 2005, NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY. Page 13