PF SUPPORTERS IN 6% OF THE CASES, AND IN 3% OF REPORTS AGAINST OTHER PARTIES. THERE WERE REPORTS OF INTER-PARTY VIOLENCE IN 45% OF THE SAMPLED CONSTITUENCIES, WITH [29%] OF THIS ALLEGEDLY BEING ZANUPF AGAINST THE MDC, WHILST ONLY [2%] WAS MDC AGAINST ZANU PF. WITH INTRA-PARTY VIOLENCE, 54% OF THE CONSTITUENCIES REPORTED THIS [49%] IMPLICATED ZANUPF, WHILST REPORTS INDICATED THAT MDC ONLY SHOWED THIS IRREGULARITY IN [9%] OF REPORTS, INDICATING THAT ZANUPF HAD ALLEGEDLY MORE IN-HOUSE PROBLEMS. THUS, WHILST OVERT PHYSICAL VIOLENCE MAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED, ALMOST EVERY OTHER INDICATOR OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE REMAINED HIGH. THE DIRECTION OF THE VIOLENCE IS OVERWHELMINGLY ATTRIBUTED TO ZANUPF RATHER THAN THE MDC, ALTHOUGH THE MDC WERE NOT ENTIRELY BLAMELESS. THERE IS CLEAR CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN OUR DATA, THE REPORTS ISSUED BY THE MDC, AND REPORTS IN THE PRESS, AND IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT THE PRE-ELECTION CLIMATE WAS FAR FROM SATISFACTORY IN RESPECT OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. WE CAN CONCLUDE WITH THE AU OBSERVERS THAT THE CLIMATE AT THE “POINT OF THE BALLOT” – FROM 24 MARCH ONWARDS – WAS PEACEFUL, BUT OUR DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS WAS HARDLY THE CASE FOR SOME MONTHS PRIOR TO THIS POINT. IT IS OUR VIEW THAT THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE NCA WOULD HAVE BEEN ENDORSED BY THE AU HAD THE OBSERVER MISSION BEEN PRESENT FOR THE 90 DAYS PRIOR TO THE POLL AS IS RECOMMENDED UNDER THE SADC PRINCIPLES AND GUIDELINES. Militia MILITIA BASES, OR THE PRESENCE OF MILITIA, WERE REPORTED IN 49% THE REPORTS RECEIVED, AND THE MOST FREQUENTLY REPORTED ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRESENCE OF MILITIA IN A CONSTITUENCY OR DISTRICT HAS BEEN WITH PHYSICAL VIOLENCE. IN THE PAST, THE INVOLVEMENT OF MILITIA – WAR VETERANS AND YOUTH MILITIA - IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE HAS BEEN HIGHLY CONTESTED BY THE GOVERNMENT, BUT A NUMBER OF INFLUENTIAL REPORTS HAVE IMPLICATED THE YOUTH MILITIA IN THE PERPETRATION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. SEVERAL REPORTS HAVE ALSO DRAWN ATTENTION TO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND ELECTIONS, AND THESE REPORTS HAVE ALSO IMPLICATED THE ROLE OF THE YOUTH MILITIA IN THE PERPETRATION OF GROSS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS. The current data has given us the opportunity to look at a number of aspects of the election climate with respect to militia, although it does not allow us to specify whether the reports relate to militia as war veterans, youth militia or party youth wings. The most important relationship to examine is the relationship between militia and violence, since this has been the most frequently reported relationship in the press and in human rights reports. As is seen in Figure 2 [see below], there are marked differences between constituencies that report the presence of militia and those that do not: both Electoral Irregularity Ratings and Violence Scores are higher in constituencies that report the presence of militia. There are a number of comments to make here. Firstly, our data corroborate the many previous reports that there is a strong association between the presence of militia and militia bases and violence. This was reported for both the 2000 Parliamentary Election and the Presidential Election in 2002. It was interesting to note that the presence of militia bases was reportedly higher in urban as opposed to rural areas, and this is a reversal of the pattern seen in previous elections. For example, the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum reported in its evaluation of the 2002 Presidential Election that there were allegedly 123 militia bases identified during the pre-election period, with nearly 90% of these in rural areas. In our data, 31% of reports from rural constituencies indicated the presence of militia and militia bases as opposed to 67% of reports from urban constituencies. This is a dramatic change from 2002, and, as will be seen below when we examine the effects of the poll result, may well be a factor explaining the reduced vote for the MDC in urban areas and increased vote in the rural areas. Secondly, as is indicated in Figure 2 [over], the association between reported militia and National Constitutional Assembly: THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. FLAWED, UNFREE AND UNFAIR!