ZanuPF supporters, militia, youth militia, and agents of the State. The activities of these various perpetrator groups have been most prevalent at times of elections. These factors contribute to the long-term climate against which elections in Zimbabwe take place, and cannot be disassociated from the current election. Furthermore, they are factors at play in the current pre-election climate, and hence it is important to assess, through the current election climate, whether these factors had an effect on the poll itself. Here we analysed the actual results, although we must comment that we have had to do so in the absence of a consolidated report on the poll results from the Zimbabwe Election Commission. We have relied in our analysis on the data complied by the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition and the Zimbabwe Election Support Network10. ACCORDING TO THESE SOURCES, AND AS CAN BE SEEN FROM TABLE 12 BELOW, THE OVERALL POLL WAS REDUCED FROM 2000, AND THERE WERE RESPECTIVE DECREASES AND INCREASES FOR MDC AND ZANUPF RESPECTIVELY. Table 12. Comparison of results [2000 & 2005] MDC 2005 902882 2000 1171166 -268,284 ZPF 1380828 1205832 +174,996 TOTAL 2124998 2488715 -636,283 It was also evident from the 2005 poll that the MDC made a better showing in the rural areas than in 2000 and a correspondingly worse show in the urban areas, which, on face value, is an unexpected result. It is not immediately evident how this might be explained. One explanation, and this is propounded by a number of public opinion surveys, is that there has been significant disillusionment with the MDC amongst the urban population. However, this does not then explain the increase in the rural popularity of the MDC in the supposed heartland of ZanuPF support, and, if anyone were to argue that land reform is a factor, this would seem contradictory as this should lead to support for ZanuPF. There is also the observation that the MDC attracted enormous crowds to its pre-election rallies in the immediate pre-election period, which suggested that the party still had strong urban support. A second explanation for the changes in MDC support could be related to the opening of the civic space in the immediate pre-election period, where MDC was able to place posters, and hold rural meetings and rallies. However, if the opening of the civic and political space were a factor in increasing support for the MDC, it is perplexing that this did not also translate into increased votes in the urban areas. The third explanation combines both of the previous two: a combination of opened space in the rural areas and urban disillusionment produces the changes observed in the poll results. However, the NCA will argue that there is a deeper level factor at work in the changes seen. It will be evident to those that have been receiving the previous NCA reports that electoral irregularities have been higher in the urban than in the rural areas. This was a comment made in both of the Consolidated Election Climate Reports previously released, and thus we examined the 10 It is important to note here that the Zimbabwe Election Commission has yet to release detailed results of the poll, and hence all commentators must rely on what is available in the public domain. This is unacceptable to say the least, since detailed results must have been available to ZEC in order for the Commission to make its determination on the voting, and raises serious concerns about both the competence and impartiality of the Commission. National Constitutional Assembly: THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. FLAWED, UNFREE AND UNFAIR!

Select target paragraph3

Add to table of contents