ZESN - Promoting Democratic Elections in Zimbabwe
16.
ZESN's Sample Based Observation Results
As part of its comprehensive effort to observe the
2018 harmonised elections, ZESN trained and
deployed over 7,200 observers to every ward,
constituency, district and province of the country.
Out of these, 750 were sample-based observers.
The SBO is an advanced Election Day observation
methodology which allows ZESN to
independently verify the presidential results as
announced by the ZEC and confidently comment
on the voting and results tabulation processes.
SBOs have contributed to systematic election
observation efforts around the world and in 12
countries in Africa such as Cote d'Ivoire (2016),
Malawi (2009 and 2014), Zambia (2008, 2011,
2015 and 2016), Ghana (2008, 2012 and 2016),
Uganda (2011), and Nigeria (2011, 2012 and
2015). In all cases the SBO accurately projected
the vote tabulation outcomes including
presidential results.
SBO observers were deployed to a weighted
nationally representative sample of polling
stations throughout the country. This random
sample was representative in terms of the
geography of the country, distribution of polling
stations, and the distribution of registered voters
across Zimbabwe. SBO observers witnessed the
entire voting and counting process at sampled
polling stations and recorded the official results as
announced by the polling officials. By 12 noon, on
31 July, ZESN had received reports from all 750
sampled polling stations and had verified and
analysed their data. Therefore, the SBO report was
based on a 100% response rate.
Table 16: ZESN SBO Estimates and ZEC Official Results for the 2018 Presidential Election
Presidential Candidate
Nelson Chamisa (MDC Alliance)
Emmerson Mnangagwa (ZANU-PF)
All Other 21 Candidates
Rejected Ballots
SBO
Estimate
45.8%
50.7%
3.5%
1.4%
Margin
of Error
+/- 2.0%
+/- 2.0%
+/- 0.2%
+/- 0.1
SBO Estimated
Range
43.8% to 47.8%
48.7% to 52.7%
3.3% to 3.7%
1.3 % to 1.5 %
ZEC Announced
Official Results (3 August)
44.3%
50.8%
Source: ZESN SBO Press Statement
63
REPORT ON THE 30 JULY 2018 HARMONISED ELECTIONS
ZESN
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