Background
Recent Afrobarometer survey findings in Zimbabwe created a firestorm of
reaction in the news media and on social media – a fact for which we think
Zimbabweans should congratulate themselves. A willingness to confront and
debate public-opinion data is a sign of democratic health (Brian Howard &
Carolyn Logan)
The response by the Afrobarometer (AB) to the many criticisms by Zimbabweans of the
findings of Round Seven of the Afrobarometer was mostly to concentrate on defending the
methodology behind the survey. Certainly for those that attended the public launch many
criticisms were raised about the methods, but behind the criticism were a wide range of
assertions about the accuracy of the content. Four main areas of criticism seemed to be the
core:
Criticism about the sampling. These are commonly raised about AB
surveys, and usually revolve around the notions that the “number of the
respondents” is too small, and the choice of sites is not “representative”;
Criticisms about the honesty of the respondents, mostly revolving around
the “fear factor”. Here the core idea is that Zimbabweans are so fearful of
possible reprisal for expressing their views, and hence suspicious of the
motives behind the research, that they moderate their answers in the
direction of “faking good”;
Criticisms of quantitative methods as generating “shallow” data. Here
there are notions that many answers to the questions should be “unpacked”
in order to understand the “real meaning” of the response;
Criticisms about the accuracy of the data in predicting future behaviour of
citizens, with electoral choice being the most obvious concern, but there
were criticisms of apparently contradictory findings such as trust in the
president alongside with fear of criticising the same. Such criticisms seem
to be based on a notion of people as wholly rational and not holding
contradictory views, which they may well do.
Most of these criticisms have been dealt with by the Afrobarometer in the response cited
above. Here we wish to deal with the second set of criticisms, those dealing with the “fear
factor” and the implicit understanding that apparently the critics have about the nature of the
Zimbabwean citizenry. The motivation for doing so is an implicit theory that maybe the critics
are what might be termed (uncharitably) “arm chair critics”.
We do not dispute either the very large body of evidence that there has been sustained
political violence over the past 17 years, or the legacy of Gukurahundi and the Liberation War
(Sachikonye. 2011). The history of political violence over the past four decades is
unchallengeable, but its consequences may be more complex in its effects on the attitudes and
behaviour of Zimbabwean citizens than is frequently assumed. For example, we have recently
completed an analysis of “risk aversion” in Zimbabwean citizens (Masunungure et al. 2017),
and it is clear that Zimbabweans are risk averse, but also that they are changing back to the
orientation of the pre-2000 era, and becoming risk taking in the majority. Here, and
supporting the “fear factor”, it was evident that one event, Operation Murambatsvina, had
very discernable effects on people’s agency, dramatically increasing risk aversion.
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