B. Matabeleland: socio‐economic context 2011 Before returning to the Gwanda survey and its implications in more depth, it is important to contextualise the levels of rural poverty that we observed within the greater Matabeleland economic reality. The continued battle for survival in rural areas is taking place against a backdrop of the unprecedented deindustrialization of Bulawayo, the only city in the west of the country. Where once family members in urban areas could be relied upon to help those in rural areas during difficult times, urban families are themselves dealing with retrenchments and poverty.16 During 2011, Bulawayo was found by a ZIMVAC survey to be the second most food insecure area in the country. With 16% of households being assessed as food insecure, Bulawayo families were three times more likely to be facing hunger than Harare households, assessed at 5% insecure.17 This finding points to the impact of rapid deindustrialization in Bulawayo at the level of households. 1. The National economic realities Events in Matabeleland are taking place in a national socio‐economic context, which is briefly summarized here. As Zimbabwe heads towards the end of the third year of the Global Political Agreement (GPA), it is clear that some areas of the economy have benefited more than others from the resulting increased political stability. By 2008, the Zimbabwean economy had been largely informalised and drastically reduced, with a loss of around 40% of GDP between 2000 and 2008: in 2008 alone, the economy shrank by nearly 18%.18 The GDP losses since 2000 were themselves a further decline in an economy facing difficulties since the early 1990s. Since 2009, however, agriculture, in particular tobacco, has begun to regain commercial viability, mining and communications have expanded, while the tourism industry, adversely affected during the political crisis, has begun to recover. Sufficient maize was grown locally during the last season to more or less meet the local demand. Growth was around 9% in 2009, but has considerably slackened since then, and will probably be around 5% in 2011. Contributing to the slowing of growth, has been the general lack of confidence among international investors with regard to security of property rights, as the implementation of the policy of indigenization continues to be unclear and shifting. Zimbabwe remains a highly difficult environment in which to conduct business, and was recently ranked as the twelfth most difficult nation in the world in which to operate commercially, at 171 out of 183 countries.19 Zimbabwe was further ranked at 122 out of 183 with regard to protecting investors’ assets. In a generally grim international context of world recession, these rankings indicate that growth is likely to continue on a much slower scale than the country desperately needs, and manufacturing will continue to face huge obstacles. 16 The relationship between urban and rural economies has shifted in complex ways in the last decade – see previous SPT publications for the impact of Murambatsvina and the economic collapse of 2008. 17 FEWS NET, ibid. 18 CIA, The World Fact Book. 19 Tauria Mangudhla: “Govt frustrating investors” in The Daily News, 23 Oct 2011. The ranking is from the latest World Bank and International Finance Corporation’s “Doing Business 2012 report”. 13