The September 2009-December 2010 poll comparison shows that it was particularly the percentage of
support for the MDC-T that fluctuated – downwards by 17 percentage points.
The analysis urges caution in the interpretation of this result, especially given the high
‘undeclared’ category. The survey in general indicates the continuous and high levels of fear
and intimidation in Zimbabwe. It is suspected that only the die-hard and very strongly
committed, and those with exceptional trust in the confidentiality of the survey process, would
offer truthful responses to this most-politicised-of-all questions.
It is for this reason – and for reasons of anticipated possible discrepancies in party support over
time – that the report next explores a series of parallel indicators of party support, which were
specifically included in the 2010 survey design to tap into potential supplementary indicators of
party support. (The 2009 survey did not specifically cater for this.)
5.2 Growing trend of non-declaration of party support
As important as the specific party support trends, was the drop in the apparent readiness to declare
MDC-T support. A far larger proportion of respondents in 2010 (42% in 2010, compared to 31% in 2009)
took refuge in the response categories of ‘my vote is my secret’, ‘don’t know’ (whom I shall be voting
for), ‘will not vote’, or the respondents just refused to answer the question which party they would vote
for.
The overall survey findings show that it is overwhelmingly MDC-T supporters that are victimised, and
who feel that they cannot express themselves politically, without fear of recrimination. The survey also
showed that whilst there were great accolades for improvements wrought by the IG. Yet, freedom of
political expression and healing of a broken nation were at the bottom of the list of improved
performance areas. Furthermore, election talk is in the air in Zimbabwe, and the survey confirmed both
that past experiences of elections were violence-ridden and that expectations of more peaceful future
electoral experiences were modest. This is a political environment that helped explain extensive nondeclaration.
The current set of data analyses did not specifically link the non-declaration responses to other political
orientations of the respondents. As an alternative and supplementary step, the analysis explored a
series of measures that could very well serve as indicators of party support in conditions of threat to
declaration.
5.3 Parallel indicators of core party support
The December 2010 survey instrument included a few questions and statements that tested (in indirect
formulations) core support for the two main political parties. A few political-statement measures were
identified on which solid ZANU-PF and solid MDC-T supporters would be most likely to agree. In practical
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