6 ELECTIONS – EXPECTATIONS, EXPERIENCES AND ELECTORAL VIOLENCE-FEAR-COERCION 6.1 Expectations of elections – main trends (50) 6.2 Order and timing of constitution-making and elections (51) 6.3 Memories of the 2008 elections (52) 6.4 Expectations of ‘free and fair’ future elections (52) Roles for SADC (53) 6.5 Violence and elections – main trends (54) 6.6 Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and readiness (55) 6.7 Voter registration (56) A huge amount of ambivalence and contradictory orientations characterise Zimbabweans’ anticipation of a next round of elections, likely to be held in the period from late 2011 to early 2012. Elections are keenly awaited by the survey respondents, but by far not all expect that they will venture to participate. Violence in particular might deter them. There are reports of experiences of electoral violence, and limited expectations that a 2011 election will be peaceful … yet, Zimbabweans hold out hope for improvements on ‘free and fair’, compared with 2008. 6.1 Expectations of elections – main trends There are high levels of cynicism, despite some modest expectations of future improvements on the 2008 set of elections. Expectations prevail that violence will continue and will impact on the vote in a next election. There is little evidence of a belief that the prevailing new era in Zimbabwean politics will spill over into the electoral domain – in terms of the conduct of the election. High levels of cynicism prevail, ranging from suspicions about administrative ability to run elections, to the election being able to deliver a clear winner. Zimbabweans, judged by the responses in this survey, have become used to (perhaps have even come to ‘accept’) their elections as being imperfect events that deliver partial solutions and piecemeal changes. They hope for more, but perhaps they do not expect it. The main survey trends on elections were: There are common expectations that there will be problems in the next election; equally, it is anticipated that the elections will fall short on the ‘free and fair’ requirement [Q16A]. It is nevertheless anticipated that the level of ‘free and fair’ of forthcoming elections will be higher than in the elections of 2008 [Q16B]. There is a predominant expectation that the opposition will not be able to participate without fear of political recrimination (a large 50% opinion block expect this) [Q54A]. 51