families have lost their jobs and sources of income as a consequence of the politically induced collapse of the economy. Are these not legitimate refugees? 4. Zimbabwe’s biggest export: its people “The time has come for African leaders to stand up and express their concern over the deteriorating human rights abuses in Zimbabwe. If human rights abuses continue to worsen, the political and economic crisis in Zimbabwe will be difficult to heal…. The Zimbabwe crisis has affected the entire Southern Africa region and there is need for African leaders to find quick solutions…” [Archbishop Desmond Tutu, October 2003] From the regional perspective, the most obvious outcome of the deepening humanitarian and human rights crisis in Zimbabwe has been the mass migration of its citizens. There are no clear figures on how many Zimbabweans have left in the last three to four years, but estimates are that between 25% and 30% of Zimbabweans are now outside their nation. President Thabo Mbeki has said that around 3 million Zimbabweans are in South Africa; estimates by Zimbabwean business analysts put the figure who have left for South Africa in the last four years at around 1,2 million, but there may be in addition around half a million Zimbabweans who have lived in or commuted to South Africa for more than a decade.43 Mozambique allegedly has 400,000 Zimbabweans and Botswana around 200,000. An additional 300,000 are estimated to be in England, with a further scattering of hundreds of thousands around the globe. All in all, an estimated 3,4 million Zimbabweans out of a total population of 12 million are generally assumed to have left their homeland in the last three years.44 These figures become more significant when it is taken into account that of Zimbabwe’s estimated population of 12 million, more than 50% is under the age of 15, and around a million is over retirement age.45 As those who have left the country are predominantly young adults, this means that out of the potentially productive population of around 5 million adults, 3,4 million or approximately 68% are now outside Zimbabwe.46. A Government analyst speaking on behalf of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank’s “Homelink” scheme in September 2004, estimated that: “60% to 70% of Zimbabwean adults who should constitute the productive population are living abroad.”47 43 News 24 SA, 16 October 2003 cites President Mbeki’s figure of 3 million, while Zimbabwe’s “Homelink” estimates cite 1,2 million. Associated Press,: One fourth of Zimbabwe’s population has emigrated, 15 February 2004. These long established migrants are dealt with in the section following. 44 AP, 15 February 2004. The Zimbabwean Census of 2002 arrived at a figure of 11,5 million Zimbabweans in the country at that point, since when millions have left. The assumed figure for Zimbabwe’s population prior to the census was around 12,5 million, suggesting a million may already have left by 2002. 45 Zimbabwe census, 2002. 46 Some Zimbabweans aged under 18 who are therefore legally unaccompanied minors have left Zimbabwe, and their treatment and experiences are dealt with separately ahead in this report. 47 Herbert Nkala, Publicity Committee Chairman for “Homelink”, cited in Zimbabwe Independent, Editor’s Memo, page 8, 24 September 2004. See following section in this report for more on “Homelink”. These estimates would also be in some accordance with predictions made by the South African Migration Project in 2001, which found that 55% of Zimbabwean professionals were at that point wanting to emigrate. 29