3. Collapse of social services and economy "The longer the problems of Zimbabwe remain unresolved, the more entrenched poverty will become. The longer this persists, the greater will be the degree of social instability, as the poor try to respond to the pains of hunger. The more protracted this instability, the greater will be the degree of polarisation and generalised social and political conflict. To respond to this, the state will inevitably have to emphasise issues of law and order, even as it has ever fewer means to address the needs of the people. As it responds in this manner, the less will it have the possibility to address anything else other than the issue of law and order. The more it does this, the greater will be the degree of the absence of order and stability." [President Thabo Mbeki: ANC letter, May 2003] Apart from political persecution and related hardship, there is untold human misery among the citizens of Zimbabwe, 70% of whom are formally unemployed, 80% of whom live below the poverty datum line, and 50% of whom end 2004 without assured access to food. Social services are collapsing as city councils cannot keep up with inflation and loss of expertise. In Harare, water shortages are now a daily occurrence, and breakdowns in the sewerage system are becoming a serious health risk in overcrowded suburbs. Inflation rates of over 400% have reduced people to a daily battle for basic survival. Zimbabwe has one of the world’s highest HIV infection levels, with an estimated 27% of adults being HIV+. Simultaneously, the health system is collapsing under the loss of human and financial resources; Zimbabweans have the lowest access to anti-retroviral drugs in southern Africa. Life expectancy in Zimbabwe has sunk from 52 years in 1980, to 35 years. One in twelve Zimbabweans is an Aids orphan.37 The economic collapse is the product of poor governance. The government orchestrated farm invasions led to the almost total destruction of the commercial agricultural sector, which used to be directly responsible for 18% of Zimbabwe’s GDP. The indirect downstream contribution of agriculture in the form of spending of agricultural profits and wages amounted to a further 18% of GDP.38 Information released from Zimbabwe’s Central Statistical Office (CSO) in June 2004 has revealed the calamitous decline not only of farming, but of industry in Zimbabwe in the last four years. From 1990 to 1998, the industrial sector showed a small but steady growth; however, there has been a precipitous collapse since then, particularly in the last two years:39 Transport industry has shrunk by Textiles industry has shrunk by Non-metals industry has shrunk by Wood industry has shrunk by Drink and tobacco industry by Chemicals industry has shrunk by Food industry has shrunk by Clothing industry has shrunk by 62% 59% 52% 52% 44% 43% 42% 9% 37 Numbers of Aids orphans are estimated to be around one million. Zimbabwe Independent, The Eric Bloch Column: Steady decline of Zimbabwean manufacturing, 2 July 2004 39 The Zimbabwe Independent, 2 July 2004, for the summary of the CSO report used here. 38 27