For example, the regime governing the
USSR had lasted 72 years, and that of
Mexico 70 years, but clearly post-colonial
regimes had mostly only been in existence
since the 1960s. Hence, regime length is
not a useful variable for this analysis.
There was a slightly greater frequency of
institutional regimes than individual ones,
51% as opposed to 44%, but no great
difference.
Table 3: Type of Transition
%
State creation
7
Collapse
10
Domestic Overthrow
15
Emergence from Civil War
5
Foreign Overthrow
5
Negotiated regime-led
39
Negotiated-Opposition-Led
19
More than half of the transitions were negotiated, with regime-led transitions being twice as
common as opposition-led transitions (Table 3 above). Given the period under consideration
was 1990 onwards, and that the Cold War had ended, it may be assumed that authoritarian
regimes were seeing the writing on the wall, and this was the part of the process that
Huntington termed the “Third Wave” of democracy (Huntington. 1991).
Negotiated transitions, whether regime or opposition-led, seemed more possible where the
form of government was either civilian or military-institutional. Examples of civilianinstitutional forms are Hungary, Poland, Romania and Russia in Europe, and Kenya,
Mozambique and Senegal in Africa. For military-institutional forms, South American
countries – Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, etc. - dominate here, but Africa is only
represented by Algeria. Africa, in fact, according to Polity IV, is dominated by militaryindividual forms of authoritarian governments: of the 17 countries in which this form of
authoritarianism prevailed, nearly 60% were African countries where the “Big Man” ruled.
With the growing international interest in support for human rights that was accelerated by
the end of the Cold War, it is interesting to see how much influence this had upon domestic
moves for justice and accountability.
As seen in Table 4 (below), pre-transitional processes revolved almost totally around
amnesties and domestic criminal prosecutions, but, as Reiter and Fishman point out, these
amnesties are mostly to do with establishing impunity or dealing with political opposition to
the regime, such as coups or mutinies (Reiter & Fishman. 2016). (Here see also sections 4.6.1
and 4.6.3 later for greater detail).
Table 4: Pre-transition
justice mechanisms
Amnesties
No.
%
51
86.4
5
8.5
43
72.9
Civil Trials
1
1.7
Foreign criminal prosecutions
4
6.8
Reparations
1
1.7
Vettings
4
6.8
Truth Commission
Domestic Criminal Prosecutions
14
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