Cases reporting to the Human Rights Forum As indicated earlier, this data was compiled from the statements given by victims about their alleged violations to lawyers of the Public Interest Unit, and was compiled from 258 complete records. 14 Most victims were male [225; 79%], and were generally mature adults [mean age=33; sd. 12.1 years]. This is commensurate with the findings on previous elections. 15 The spread of violations across the country was very similar to the larger data set, with most violations [62%] being reported from the three Mashonaland Provinces, but a significantly large number also being reported in Harare. Table 3 Number and Percentage of violations reported by Province [n=285] Province Number [%] Bulawayo 0 Harare 122[43%] Manicaland 12[4%] Mashonaland Central 6[2%] Mashonaland East 40[14%] Mashonaland West 98[34%] Masvingo 2[1%] Unknown 2[1%] Again the cases were examined for their relationship to electoral constituency. This time the data was more comprehensive and constituency could be assigned to 265 [87%] of the cases. 27 of the constituencies were won by the MDC and 19 by ZANU PF, with the MDC’s average margin being 5,781 votes to ZANU PF’s 5,477 votes [see Appendix 1]. The total vote for these 41 constituencies was 523,365, with MDC-T getting 265,946 and ZANU PF getting 257,742. Assuming that the violence in ZANU PF strongholds could produce similar results to those in 2002,16 then Robert Mugabe could pick up nearly 250,000 votes from these strongholds. Given that one percentage point in the March poll was 24,000 votes, this would give Robert Mugabe 14 15 16 There were 250 reports taken by the PIU, but this reduced to 218 when the data was cleaned, as 32 cases had no details on either place or time of incident, and hence could not be easily confirmed. This was done to ensure reliability of reporting. Furthermore, the statements taken by the PIU lawyers are supported by medical evidence. See Amani (2002), Organised Violence and Torture in the June 2000 General Election in Zimbabwe, HARARE: AMANI TRUST; Amani (2002), Beating your opposition. Torture during the 2002 Presidential campaign in Zimbabwe, HARARE: AMANI TRUST; IRCT (2000), Organised Violence and Torture in Zimbabwe, 6th June 2000 , Copenhagen and Harare, COPENHAGEN & HARARE: IRCT & AMANI TRUST; IRCT (2001) Organised Violence and Torture in Zimbabwe, 24th May 2001, Copenhagen and Harare, COPENHAGEN & HARARE: IRCT & AMANI TRUST; Physicians for Human Rights (2002), Zimbabwe 2002. The Presidential Election: 44 days to go. Physicians for Human Rights, Denmark, 24 January 2002. Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum (2001), Human Rights and Zimbabwe’s June 2000 election, HARARE: ZIMBABWE HUMAN RIGHTS NGO FORUM; Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum (2002), Human Rights and Zimbabwe’s Presidential Election: March 2002 , HARARE: ZIMBABWE HUMAN RIGHTS NGO FORUM. In 2002, constituencies in the Mashonaland Provinces produced staggeringly high turnouts relative to the national average. For example, UMP [85%], Mutoko North [72%], Mutoko South [84%], Muzarabani [72%], Mudzi [72%], and Mount Darwin North [83%] when the national average was only 58%.