The same goes for ZANU‐PF with regard to statement B, and to some extent statement C. ZANU‐PF
supporters on statement B cluster around both unambiguous endorsement and approval with
recognition of problems with the indigenisation thrust in Zimbabwe.
Statement B responses illustrated how MDC‐T supporters strongly cluster around the idea of
indigenisation whilst emphasising that there are serious problems with the current methods that are
used to execute the process. The MDC‐Ts also differentiate themselves through their strong association
(on statement C) with the belief that indigenisation as it is currently implemented in Zimbabwe benefits
the elite.
Profiling the main parties’ and undeclareds’ support bases
It is often a case of so much‐so little difference in the orientations of the supporters of Zimbabwe’s two
main political parties. Their socio‐political DNA largely converges, yet also remains different on a few
crucial dimensions. It is largely the conventionalissues of liberation of Zimbabwe from colonial rule, the
role of the military, the land and indigenisation, and trust in some of the public institutions that
differentiate the supporters of the two main parties. MDC‐T supporters are characterised by their strong
endorsement of ‘change’. The large grouping of undeclared support – and even the more specific
category of ‘my vote is my secret’ – by all demographic indications are hybrids of the characteristics of
the two main parties. They do not clearly and systematically resemble a specific party.
Survey indicators are not indicators of election outcomes – especially not if the question states that if
you had to vote or decide today whom or which party to support. Politics and economic conditions in
Zimbabwe are in flux. Zimbabweans have not disinherited the MDC‐T, just as they have not
unambiguously endorsed ZANU‐PF. Whilst Zimbabwean politics is undergoing changemany of the old
divisions remain. Zimbabweans are expressing disappointment and anger with the failures of the MDC‐
T, and are showing appreciation for ZANU‐PF seemingly having moderated violence and intimidation,
and appearing (at least at the time of the fieldwork for the survey) to have come to terms with a
consensus constitution. Simultaneously, they are more trusting of ZANU‐PF.
The FH 2012 survey trends are useful in indicating the demographic lines along which the support for
the two main parties has been changing since late 2010:
Gender: The MDC‐T’s gender profile is shown to be closer to a gender balance than it was
before (2012: 54‐46% male‐female; 2010: 60‐40% male‐female). ZANU‐PF remains closely
balanced between the two genders. Those who regard their vote to be their secret (2012)
emerge as 51% male and 49% female.
Rural‐urban: In 2010 63% of the MDC‐T support base was in the rural areas (and 37% urban). In
2012 it had become 59% rural and 41% urban. The gap has also been closing for ZANU‐PF, which
emerged as 77% rural in 2012 (down proportionately from the 89% of 2010). This change could
be related to former and largely urban MDC supporters now declaring backing for ZANU‐PF. The
2012 secret‐vote component of the undeclareds is more rural (58%) than urban (42%).
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