reckon that IG gives them some level of hope contrasts with the substantial chunk of 34% that have
doubt or serious doubt about this.
Table 2:
Hope or doubt that unfolding processes will lead to a better future in Zimbabwe
Four processes (%)
Level of hope or doubt
Inclusive
Current constitution‐
Forthcoming
Elections of
government
making
referendum
2013
Strong hope
14
17
15
30
Some hope
33
33
33
32
Neither hope nor doubt
8
10
11
12
Some doubt
15
12
10
8
Serious doubt
19
8
7
9
Undecided
11
19
23
10
Note: Based on Q11 (2012), ‘How much hope or doubt do you have that each of the next four processes will take
Zimbabwe to a better future?’
3: PARTY POLITICAL CHANGE 2009‐12
Zimbabweans in the FH survey cautioned the Movement for Democratic Change‐Tsvangirai (MDC‐T) to
recapture the popular imagination as agent for change. The survey suggested that the MDC‐T has lost
the edge that it had enjoyed over the Zimbabwe African National Union‐Patriotic Front (ZANU‐PF) (Table
3).
The consistent and substantial block of non‐declarers (those who choose not to reveal which party or
candidate they will support in a next election) is big enough at 47% to change the relative standings of
the main parties. Zimbabweans, in the typical style of Zimbabwean culture, often refuse to disclose
which party they anticipate supporting, come the event of a next parliamentary or presidential election.
As Table 3 shows, however, this percentage has been rising in the course of the three FH surveys from
2009 to 2012 – the joint percentages of undeclared and ‘will not vote’ rose from 31% to 41% to 47%.In
the current poll 41% preferred not to disclose whom they would support in a parliamentary election,
and 40% followed suit on declaring for a presidential race. Further chunks of respondents, said they do
not know / are not sure.
It is not possible to do a systematic re‐allocation of this category, but it is possible to further dissect the
undeclared category of respondents (that are manifested through responses of ‘my vote is my secret’,
‘don’t know’, ‘not sure’ and ‘refuse’). This will establish which of the main parties they resemble best.
This profiling is done in much of the rest of the report. The analysis also aims to shed light on the
reasons for the substantial chunks of the voters refusing to declare.
17
Select target paragraph3
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