Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum returned to this survey after the referendum result, to ram home the discrepancies between what people said and what the draft constitution contained. It was clear that the survey was a very accurate indicator not only of what the people wanted, but also how they finally voted. The Daily Newsxxiii conducted a more controversial survey of self-selected respondants. Only 164 people sent back ‘Election 2000’, a questionnaire designed along Gallup lines and published as part of the paper itself. Their replies were ‘analysed and interpreted with the help of experts in statistics at the University of Zimbabwe’. In contrast to a later survey published in the state-owned press, they showed that the newly-formed Movement for Democratic Change would receive 36,6% of the respondants’ vote, the Zimbabwe Union of Democrats one-third, and Zanu-PF 6,7%. Nearly half agreed that Zanu-PF had ‘dictatorial, deceitful and corrupt leaders’ and well over one-third thought it had ruined the economy. To an open-ended question on whom they would vote for as State President, only 5,5% volunteered the current incumbent, while 47,0% opted for Morgan Tsvangirai and 22% for Margaret Dongo. With the help of other UZ academics, some of whom later admitted they had not read the Daily News’ survey,xxiv The Herald quickly laid into the methodological problems of its main rival’s initiative. Based on an assumed circulation of 40 000, the response rate of 0,41% was dismissed as ‘a gross distortion of basic mathematical principles’ and ‘cheap politicking’ to influence public opinion toward opposition parties.xxv Certainly the Daily News’ straw poll did not shake the State President’s confidence that Zanu-PF would win a ‘landslide victory’ in the general election.xxvi He later ‘dismissed claims by those opposed to the draft constitution on the basis that [it] gives the executive president excessive powers’.xxvii His confidence was presumably bolstered by the results of a December survey conducted by the Bureau of Strategic Studies’ Southern Centre and published by The Herald.xxviii 62% of 375 rural and 39% of 600 urban respondants said they would vote for Zanu-PF. Those intending to vote for the MDC were reportedly 23% in both rural and urban areas. However, urbanites intending to vote for any opposition party totalled 50%, while nearly one in three of the rural respondants intended to vote for an opposition party. In presidential elections, 61% of rural but only 28% of urban voters said they would vote for the present incumbent. While claiming that support for Zanu-PF had been ‘moderately undervalued’ because peasant farmers, unskilled workers and the unemployed had been under-represented, the report nonetheless noted that only 17% of rural and 15% of urban voters regarded land as the pre-eminent policy issue. A fortnight before the referendum, the Public Opinion Institute polled 6 871 respondants evenly spread over eight provinces. It correctly predicted a negative overall result from 42% intending to vote yes, 37% admitting to a no vote, 13% unwilling to reveal their intention and the residual 8% presumably being undecided. The most comprehensive and methodologically-acceptable survey of 1 900 randomly-selected respondants was done during the run-up to the referendum and publicised in The Standard on 12 March 2000. What impact the referendum results might have had on voters’ subsequent views remains unknown, but Political Opinion in Zimbabwe 2000 reflected little of comfort to Zanu-PF or President Mugabe. A strong commitment emerged to the rule of law in a liberal democracy with freedom of expression. The police were then regarded with some favour. The land issue ranked fourth among voters’ concerns, behind inflation, unemployment and the fall in the value of the national currency. Only 30 % wanted to see farms removed from their white owners. The same proportion wanted President Mugabe to continue in power, compared to 69% who wanted a twoterm limit on presidential incumbents, 65% who wanted him to step down, and 63% who wanted a change of government from Zanu-PF. Three of every four respondants wanted a reduction in existing presidential powers. Less than one in three had any confidence that the government is 17