Agents of Peace: Young People and Violent Conflict Figure 4.1  The relationship between positive peace and youth bulges, 2015 AFG PKR YEM 4.00 NGA PAK SWZ LBN CUB LSO CHN UKR TUR 3.00 OMN TTO MYS GRC QAT ITA 2.00 SGP JPN More Peaceful 2016 Global Peace Index - internal score Less Peaceful 5.00 NOR 1.00 10% Source: Commonwealth Secretariat 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Proportion of youth population 2015 and there are also significant exceptions to it. There are many countries that have large youth populations and are still relatively peaceful: Oman, Botswana, Malaysia, Jamaica, Qatar and Bhutan, to name a few. In contrast, a few countries, including Ukraine, Russia and Thailand, have relatively small youth cohorts in their total population but are more susceptible to violence than many of their peers. The research that links large youth cohorts with social unrest and conflict identifies several transmission channels and causal pathways. One strand of research links young people’s propensity to engage in violence with their assumed developmental immaturity and higher vulnerability to revolutionary ideas or propaganda.17 Other studies maintain that governments are more repressive when faced with a large youth cohort.18 However, the most prominent approach on the subject stresses the role of economic factors in making large cohorts of youth more prone to violence. According to this approach, youth bulges increase both opportunities and motives for political violence.19 The first major study on the subject found that large youth bulges increase the likelihood of armed conflict, especially under conditions of economic stagnation.20 This thesis was based on the idea that youth bulges ensure an abundant supply of young people with low opportunity costs. Large cohorts of young people are more likely to experience unemployment, which in turn strengthens the motive for violence.21 In a similar vein, a more recent study found that the mere presence of a youth bulge is not enough to generate violence. Instead, the increased risk of violence that a youth bulge can portend is explained by the pressure that large youth cohorts exert on the total labour force.22 Other studies emphasise the role of educational attainment as an intervening variable. Research shows that countries with a less educated but large youth cohort are more prone to violence and political instability. This is particularly true for young males in low and middle-income countries, although it is dependent on structural economic factors,23 especially in many developing countries where young people have relatively high education levels but still fail to find decent jobs. \ 93