94 \ Global Youth Development Index and Report 2016 Although the theories linking youth bulges with violence often get highlighted in policy and political debates, the empirical evidence to corroborate them is weak and inconclusive. Evidence demonstrates that a youth bulge by itself does not necessarily lead to violence and instability.24 Similarly, unemployment or underemployment among youth cohorts does not inevitably translate into violence and war. As can be seen in Figure 4.1, there are many countries that have large youth bulges but are still relatively peaceful. As many studies have shown, a range of other political, social and economic factors – such as unemployment, prevalence of corruption, institutional quality, urbanisation, socio-economic fault lines, inequality and limited political participation – are in play.25 The risk of violent conflict increases when a youth bulge combines with one or more of these wider factors. For example, a recent study shows that corruption is more likely to lead to instability in countries that have large youth bulges.26 While the existence of a youth bulge in a country does not have to lead to violence, the above findings, nevertheless, suggest that large youth cohorts can be at risk if their skills are not developed and decent work opportunities are not provided. 4.2.3 Young people and violent extremism: the evidence so far Recent research on terrorism and violent extremism also shows little conclusive evidence on the link between youth employment (or the lack of it) and armed violence. Studies have shown that the link between terrorism and unemployment and socioeconomic status is weak.27 Instead, evidence shows that the educated middle class is increasingly joining terrorist organisations across the world.28 Some scholars have maintained that it is radicalisation through a very perverted interpretation of religion that motivates many young people to engage in violence;29 most scholars downplay the role of religion and instead stress the role of other factors such as identity crisis and experiences of racism.30 Social psychologists have stressed the importance of a need for identity and sense of belonging in the lives of young people.31 Others have argued that the rise of terrorism is due to a generational revolt. The current generation of angry young people, the argument goes, is using a warped view of religion to rebel against society.32 On the one hand, young people, especially those belonging to diaspora communities or minority groups, are falling back on primary identity markers such as faith or ethnicity in response to real or perceived experiences of cultural marginalisation and a sense of exclusion from the mainstream identity narratives of their host or home countries. On the other hand, the world is seeing the rise of exclusionary and populist identity politics that is often based on a restrictive notion of citizenship and cultural and political hegemony of the dominant social group – a form of collective identity that may also be a reaction to the potentially homogenising forces of globalisation. Again, the evidence on youth radicalisation is inconclusive and mixed. Nevertheless, the following important insights emerge from the existing body of research on the subject: • The available evidence suggests that there is no clear profile or single causal pathway that can define the process of radicalisation. Instead, a combination of individual and structural factors explains why some young people might join terrorist organisations or armed groups at a particular point in time. • Context matters – a lot. The combination of proximate and structural factors that motivate young people to participate in violence varies significantly across contexts. • Poverty and unemployment alone do not explain why some young people turn to violent extremism. There is increasing evidence that young people from all socio-economic backgrounds are participating in violent extremism, though poverty or unemployment may make some individuals or groups of young people more vulnerable than others. • Issues of identity and belonging appear to be central to the radicalisation of young people, particularly among displaced and diaspora communities. 4.2.4  Young people as victims of violence Contrary to what the theories on youth bulges posit, young people are often the victims of violence. Throughout the world, physical violence is a major aspect in the lives of children and young people, and continues to be a serious threat to their health and development. One in every three young people lives in a fragile or conflict-affected area. An estimated 200,000 homicides occur worldwide among young people each year, which make up 43 per cent of the total homicides each year.33 Eight out of ten young homicide victims are male and nearly all these deaths occur in low and middleincome countries.34