effects of this finding against the 2005 poll results.
The method was straight forward. From the results data base mentioned above, we identified the
set of constituencies for which there were data from both 2000 and 2005. This was necessary
since delimitation in 2005 had changed a number of constituencies, and thus this left a set of 74
constituencies for analysis11. We calculated the difference between the votes cast for the MDC in
2000 and 2005, and assigned a binary value to the difference observed [1= improved vote; 0=
unimproved vote]. This was done so that we could bring the data in line with the NCA data, and
could examine simple frequencies.
The first analysis was to examine the differences between rural and urban constituencies as
reflected in 2005 poll. As can be seen from Table 13 below, in every case there were lower
electoral irregularities in the rural constituencies.
Table 13.
Electoral Irregularities in rural versus urban constituencies.
Rural
Constituency
Interference with freedom of association
85%
Interference with freedom of assembly
74%
Interference with freedom of movement
78%
Interference with freedom of expression
85%
Political violence
94%
Gender-based violence
50%
Intimidation
82%
Militia base reported
48%
Inter-party violence
57%
Intra-party violence
69%
Political use of food
80%
Urban
Constituency
96%
96%
93%
96%
96%
71%
96%
75%
82%
89%
96%
Although it is clear that the electoral irregularities were unacceptably high overall, there is a
consistent trend for these to be higher in the urban areas.
However, it is also apparent from the election results that the MDC did not uniformly increase its
support in the rural areas, and there were a number of constituencies [46%] in which this did not
happen. This was then examined separately, and, as can be seen from Table 14 below, apart
from the ratings on intimidation and gender-based violence, the electoral irregularities are higher
in the constituencies in which the MDC’s share of the vote worsened from the 2000 poll. The
differences are however very small – about 5% on average.
Table 14.
Electoral Irregularities compared to vote share for the MDC [2000 & 2005]
Interference with Freedom
Interference with Freedom
Interference with Freedom
Interference with Freedom
Political violence
Gender-based violence
of
of
of
of
Association
Assembly
movement
Expression
Vote share
improved.
86%
82%
82%
86%
91%
59%
Vote shared
worsened.
93%
83%
85%
93%
96%
58%
11 See notes in Appendix 1.
National Constitutional Assembly: THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. FLAWED, UNFREE AND UNFAIR!
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