as the major terrain of contest. Zimbabwe, according to ACLED, is the most violent of the five countries when it comes to elections: Mozambique comes close, but none of the others. For most of the countries, political violence is seen in the context of riots or violent protests, particularly in Angola and South Africa. When we examine what kinds of violence are seen during Zimbabwean elections, and it is evident that the worst violence is seen when the contest is for the presidency, the data from the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum is cause for deep concern. As seen in Table 5, abductions, assaults, attempted murder, death threats, property-related violations (theft and/or property destruction), and torture. These are all violations that are typically called “gross human rights violations”, and in violation of every international convention and treaty, let alone international humanitarian law. These findings must be seen as the background for the forthcoming elections, and possibly the most contested elections in Zimbabwe’s history. No political party is certain of victory it would appear, and the ruling party, ZANU-PF, seems objectively weaker than at any time in the 37 years of independence, and it would seem unlikely that it will be able to pull all those purged back into the fold. Whilst it is commonplace to assert that the opposition is weak and fragmented, it may be that there is a greater possibility that all these parties can come together in an electoral alliance than ZANU-PF can coax the purged back. In this very difficult situation, it seems well to remember a very robust psychological finding: nothing predicts future violence than a history of past violence. Whilst this is welldemonstrated for individual behaviour, it has application also for mass behaviour, and, on the evidence that we provide here, it seems advisable to pay close attention to Zimbabwe’s past. References Bavister-Gould, A (2011), Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule and Predatory States, September 2011. Concept Paper 01. Development Leadership Program. Bratton. M (2014), Power Politics in Zimbabwe. London: Lynne Rienner. Bratton. M., & Masunungure, E (2011), The Anatomy of Political Predation: Leaders, Elites and Coalitions in Zimbabwe, 1980-2010. January 2011. Research Paper 09. Development Leadership Program. Clapham, C (2012), From Liberation Movement to Government. Past legacies and the challenge of transition in Africa. Discussion Paper 8. Johannesburg: The Brenthurst Foundation. CSVR (2009), Subliminal Terror? Human rights violations and torture in Zimbabwe during 2008. June 2009. Johannesburg: CSVR [long report]; RAU (2016), Are former liberation movements inherently violent as governments? February 2016. Harare: Research & Advocacy Unit. RAU (2016), A valedictory for civil society in Zimbabwe. February 2016. Harare: Research & Advocacy Unit. 7