2. Rainfall predictions – implications for planting Analysts seem to disagree on the prospects for rain this season. FEWS NET refers to the likelihood of scattered rains until December, with better rains in the new year,5 but the Zimbabwe Meteorological Office and the Commercial Farmers Union (CFU) predict precisely the opposite – reasonable rains from now until the end of the year, followed by a dry stretch in the new year, which has become the regular pattern in the last few seasons.6 The difference is important, as if the CFU is correct, communal farmers, particularly in low rainfall areas such as Matabeleland, should be planting by no later than mid November if they are to harvest anything. Large‐scale commercial farmers are predicting a lower harvest this coming season, owing to problems with procuring inputs caused by late payment by the Grain Marketing Board for grain delivered earlier this year. This means that debts from last season are not yet serviced, compromising loans for the coming season.7 The CFU stresses the importance of commercial farmers also planting by mid November this year. AREX officials are currently recommending “dry planting” in Matabeleland to increase the chances of harvesting, which means planting before the first rains ‐ ie right now ‐ and they also recommend staggered planting, with some seed planted early and some later, so that whatever the rainfall pattern, something should be harvested.8 But this is all academic for those families that cannot afford inputs right now. The first rains have fallen in some parts of Matabeleland and are looming elsewhere, and a few weeks’ delay in planting in these low rainfall areas could be the difference between harvesting and not harvesting by April. Based on the current state of affairs, for Matabeleland South’s poorest families, 2012 may be poised once again to be a year of great hunger and crop failure.9 3. Free and subsidized inputs for 2011‐2012 growing season: Not too little, but too late? There is little evidence that subsidized seed and fertilizer inputs are being made available timeously for the current planting season, which is already upon us.10 The USAID “Promoting Recovery in Zimbabwe” (PRIZE) programme will bring subsidized seed to rural stores in Gwanda, Masvingo and Mberengwa ‐ but in 5 FEWS NET: Zimbabwe food security update, September 2011. 6D Chisvo, “Govt, financial sector lacks financial resources”, in the Daily News, 23 Oct 2011. 7 The head of the CFU predicts a decrease from this year’s harvest of 900,000 tonnes to 781,000 tonnes in 2012. In 2000, the country produced 2,000,000 tonnes of maize, so the next harvest is likely to be 30% of this peak production. 8 The Chronicle: “Delivery of farming inputs in Mat North begins”: 28 October 2011. 9 See further ahead for rainfall pattern predictions, some of which are predicting good early rains and then a dry spell, which is why early planting is so essential. 10 Interviews with ORAP, World Vision, Care, WFP on 26 October 2011. There is apparently some Food For Work in Matobo and Bulilima districts. Other programmes in skills training are also going on, but nothing that is putting food into hungry Gwanda households now. 9