In these primary elections, both parties tried to impose candidates on the locality or, in the MDC’s case, allowed multiple candidates to run from different wings of the Alliance. As might have been expected, disputes arising from these anomalies generated a profusion of disgruntled losers who went on to mount independent candidacies for seats in Parliament. But the proportion of citizens intending to vote for independent candidates barely budged between May and July and never exceeded 1% of the electorate. Will the election end well? Perhaps reflecting a somewhat more open political environment, the proportion of Zimbabweans who thought that “people must be careful of what they say about politics” dipped by 6 percentage points between May (82%) and July (76%) (Figure 12). But Zimbabweans continued to display high levels of self-censorship, especially when compared with an average of 70% across other African countries.9 Note, however, that Zimbabwe no longer leads the continent on this indicator; at least eight other countries now register higher levels of fear of open expression. Figure 12: Careful about what one says | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018 100% 80% 82% 76% 60% 40% 20% 23% 17% 0% Early May 2018 Often/Always Early July 2018 Rarely/Never As expected, opposition sympathizers were more likely than ruling-party supporters to express a need to be careful about what they say (84% vs. 71%) (Figure 13). But the fact that seven out of 10 ZANU-PF backers nevertheless felt cautious about political speech indicates that the ruling party continues to use heavy-handed methods to discipline its own political base. 9 Afrobarometer Round 7, 24 countries circa 2017 Copyright ©2018 11

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