To Chamisa’s credit, however, his vigorous efforts to introduce himself to the electorate have apparently begun to pay off. Nor does he seem to have been badly hurt by naïve gaffes or over-enthusiastic campaign promises. Instead, on the core issue in the campaign – job creation3 – he has established a more favourable public reputation than his chief rival (Figure 6). Asked about “who will do a better job in creating jobs for the people,” respondents said that Chamisa outranks Mnangagwa by 10 percentage points (42% vs. 32%).4 The remainder either “didn’t know” or refused to answer (18% combined) or said “neither of them” (8%). It is therefore possible that perceptions of Chamisa as a more capable job creator – correct or not – probably help explain the MDC’s recent gains in party identification. Not surprisingly, opinions on the subject of a leader’s ability to create jobs are starkly divided along partisan lines and between urban (mainly pro-MDC) and rural (mainly pro-ZANU-PF) areas. At the same time, popular trust in the opposition leader and his party and alliance seemed to be on the rise – from 40% of all citizens interviewed in early May to 48% in early July.5 Figure 6: Who would be better at job creation? | Zimbabwe | July 2018 100% 80% 60% 42% 40% 32% 18% 20% 8% 0% Nelson Chamisa Emmerson Mnangagwa Neither of them Don't know/Refused to answer Voting intentions: Presidential election So where did the presidential race stand about one month before the July 30 elections? 6 The final pre-election survey captured a snapshot of citizens’ intended voting behaviour at this time. The survey question asked, “If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s or alliance’s candidate would you vote for?” Among citizens who were both registered to vote and likely to vote, 40% said they would vote for the ZANU-PF and 37% said they would vote for the MDC (party and Alliance) (Figure 7). 3 See Afrobarometer Policy Paper No. 47 at www.afrobarometer.org. 4 More than half (53%) of urban dwellers held this view of Chamisa. 5 Caution is warranted in interpreting this change, since the May survey asked about the MDC-T party and alliance and the July survey asked about the MDC-T leader. 6 The median date for fieldwork was June 30. Copyright ©2018 6