12 farms, the problem of internally displaced persons becomes even more critical. These refugees, and the many more that the coming months will see, all require food, shelter and medical assistance, that will not be forthcoming from a government which is broke and facing international censure. The overall picture is one that must raise the deepest concerns for all humanitarian agencies and the government. The incidence of reported OVT, and especially torture, is extremely high, but perhaps expected from the plethora of reports of high rates of gross human rights violations taking place on the commercial farms. Although it is difficult to generalise from a clinical study such as this, it does seem fair to postulate a model that will be able to generate an estimate of the likely frequency of both OVT torture and its effects. Here it should be pointed out that there already exists a considerable body of epidemiological research on common mental disorders and disorders due to torture, from which it is possible to make educated guesses. We can certainly make comparisons with other Zimbabwean reports on the prevalence and nature of disorders due to OVT. A likely model would postulate that the incidence of torture can be inferred from the reports of violence on commercial farms. The more reports that emanate from any particular farm will make it more likely that torture has taken place. Chipesa Farm would thus be a good case from which to postulate a continuum of probability of torture and its effects, having had multiple incidents of gross human rights violations since February 2000. Thus, the greater the number of incidents, the greater the likelihood that torture did occur. Simple indicators here could be: • • • • Number of reports of violence overall ; Number of reports of “pungwes”; Number of reports injuries related to OVT; Number of occasions reports to police made. Assuming that an overall indicator can be generated, and it does not seem very difficult to do this, then it becomes possible to estimate the likely number of people affected. This can be calculated from the actual numbers of farm workers and their families employed on those farms. Using the data derived from the present study, a very crude estimate would then be derived in the following way from the above findings: • • • • Take all high risk farms, those with multiple reports of gross human rights violations; Calculate the rates of gross human rights violations at 71% of all adults; Calculate the rates of gross human rights violations at 55% of all children; Calculate the rate of psychological disorder at 81% of all adults. If we assume, as many commentators have suggested, a population of 1 million commercial farm workers and their families, then the figures for trauma are frightening in their implications. Now this may seem to lead to impossibly high rates, but, in the absence of proper epidemiological investigations, it will be vital to have some estimate of need, and it is clearly better in the current humanitarian crisis to err on the side of generosity than design helping systems that miss problems. This is frequently the case with refugee or IDP populations: that disorders due to trauma are not identified as being crucial to the setting up initial help systems. However, whatever rates of gross human rights violations finally obtain, and whatever rates of disorder are finally established, this preliminary report suggests extreme cause for concern. It will be critical in the discussions on humanitarian assistance that the preoccupation with food is replaced by a more holistic approach in which the multiple problems of IDPs are managed, and not forgetting that similar problems are likely to be found in the residents of the communal lands. AMANI TRUST: Preliminary Report of a Survey on Internally Displaced Persons from Commercial Farms in Zimbabwe.