The rationale for choosing these indices out of the enormous range of possible indices that
can be derived from the Afrobarometer data was pragmatic: we wanted a simple range of
questions to reflect the ways in which citizens might have changed as a consequence of OM.
Thus, we identified questions (and hence indices) that showed how citizens perceptions of the
government had changed as well as ways in which they felt that they themselves had
changed. A particular interest was in seeing whether there were differences between rural and
urban respondents given the focus of OM on urban and peri-urban areas and especially
because our earlier study on risk aversion shows a long-term difference between rural and
urban residents, with urban residents remaining more risk averse than rural residents
following OM.2
A combined index was constructed for each of the above, using a simple score for each based
on the sum of the re-coded binary scores for each question. The data was combined in an
Excel spreadsheet and frequencies calculated for all measures.
Results
Below we report the findings for the contrast between the three rounds according to the
themes identified – political participation, community participation, political trust, and
political affiliation. However, at the outset we examine the differences between the two
groups, urban and rural, in their perceived consequences of OM on their lives.
Effects of OM
Given the finding that urban citizens remained more risk averse following OM than their rural
counterparts, it is worth at the outset examining one aspect of OM not explicitly canvassed in
the Afrobarometer (2006) report, the contrast between urban and rural residents.
Table 1: Urban versus Rural – the effects of OM
Destruction of home/dwelling on your property
Evicted from place of residence
Destruction or closure of business
Arrested for engaging in illegal trade
Loss of job
Moved in with relatives
Relocated to a rural area
Taken to transit camp
Stay in the open
Now operates business from home
Government's Operation Murambatsvina
“good”
Urban
[n=336] 3
67%
44%
48%
28%
33%
54%
36%
13%
27%
35%
Rural
[n=710]
41%
33%
23%
13%
21%
34%
35%
5%
17%
12%
17%
37%
It is evident that the effects were considerably more serious for urban as opposed to rural
residents. Every consequence covered in the Afrobarometer Round 3 survey was worse for
2
Masunungure, E., Reeler, A., Kokera, R., Mususa, D., Ndoma, S. & Koga, H (2016), Are Zimbabweans
Revolting? An examination of Risk-taking and Risk-Aversion since 1999, March 2017. MPOI & RAU.
3
For every consequence of OM the difference was strongly statistically significant (χ²: p=0.0001).
7