4 PREVALENCE OF TORTURE SINCE 2000 There are no direct investigations of the prevalence of torture since 2000 comparable to the work done by the Amani Trust or the Gukurahundi, but one small study on the prevalence of Common Mental Disorders [CMD] does allow some inferences to be drawn42. This study demonstrated a marked increase in the prevalence of CMD. The study showed an overall point prevalence of 38%, more than 10% higher than the previously recorded rates of 10.5% to 26% in the 1990s. However, it was the risk factors associated with CMD that were instructive. The experience of violence [once, twice, or more than twice] was significantly associated with the risk of developing CMD, as did experience of rape or sexual assault and having witnessed violence. Having belongings taken away by authorities was found to the highest risk factor, and persons reporting this were 14 times more likely to experience CMD. Since there was no investigation of gross human rights violations, it can only be inferred that the risk factors identified were related to organized violence and torture, but, as will be seen from analysis of the subsequent reports, this is an extremely plausible inference. 4.1 Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum The most comprehensive source of data on the human rights violations since 2000 is provided by the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum, the “Human Rights Forum’. Since July 2001, the Human Rights Forum has put out 89 monthly reports on the political violence, as well as about 32 analytical reports. The analysis that follows is based mostly upon the 89 Political Violence Monthly reports, from July 2001 to December 2008, which were compiled into a data base and examined statistically. The data for these reports comes from a variety of sources: cases reported by the 16 members of the Human Rights Forum, affidavits taken from victims seen by the Public Interest Unit of the Legal Resources Foundation, and cases reported in the media. As is seen in Table 2 below, there is a steady but linear increase in the total number of violations reported over the past 5 years, and, interestingly, 2008 shows the highest number of violations per year over the period. This corroborates the findings of the ActionAid survey, which showed the highest rates of trauma in 2005. However, as was found in the ActionAid survey, the types of violation reported by the Human Rights Forum have changed over the years. This is clearly shown in Table 2 [see over]. A total of 40,559 human rights violations have been reported by the Human Rights Forum since July 2001. As stated before, it should be borne in mind that this can only be seen as a sample without any indication of scale, but, as was seen earlier, the indications from community surveys, suggest that these violations have been very common and widespread43. Furthermore, there is no data from 2000, and only six months for 2001. Hence it is probable that the total number of cases is considerably higher, and it must additionally be borne in mind that the Human Rights Forum reports are monthly reports, dealing only with the cases seen or reported during that month: cases from earlier months that report later – which is extremely common in the experience of Zimbabwean human rights groups – are not included in these reports or the totals. It is also the case that these reports cannot be assumed to reflect the number of persons affected. Since victims frequently report more than one violation type, as well as the observation that individual reports may concern more than one person, the total number of persons affected may be either greater or smaller than 40,559. 42 43 See Report on Common Mental Disorders in Harare, August 2006. Counselling Services Unit, University of Zimbabwe [Departments of Community Medicine & Psychiatry], City Health Department, & Ministry of Health and Child Welfare. As will be seen in the summary of the JAG survey, the number of violations could be as high as 1.3 million, and this only in the commercial farming areas. If the violations outside of the commercial farms are considered, then the high estimate given by JAG, of 4.3 million, seems credible. Page 11