Conclusions
While the results of this analysis are taken from the publicly reported data and
hence do not allow for detailed statistical analysis, even this relatively crude data
allows us to examine associations with temporal events, such as elections.
Taken as a whole, these data present a very disturbing picture, and add depth to
the numerous reports of human rights violations in Zimbabwe during the period
July 2001 to December 2003. The analysis clearly indicates that human rights
violations in Zimbabwe over this period cannot be described as random acts of
political violence between political parties, nor as clashes due to problems over
land. The strongest association is between human rights violations and elections,
and this confirms the views of all reports by human rights groups, both
Zimbabwean and international. It also confirms the views of the various reputable
observer groups: that, elections in Zimbabwe are accompanied by significant
levels of violence.
There is no evidence that the violence is significantly related to either inter-party
or land conflict. As was seen in Figure 3, the members of the MDC are
overwhelmingly those who have been killed, and the numbers of victims who
might plausibly be connected with the land invasions – game scouts, farm
workers, etc – decline dramatically through 2002 and 2003. Furthermore, the
pattern of deaths is more strongly associated with elections than any other factor.
The same comments can be made for all the other types of human rights
violations.
All types of human rights violations, apart from infringements of freedom of
association and expression, show a very strong relationship to the Presidential
Election in 2002. We have not presented data prior to July 2001, so it is not
possible to make the same analysis for the Parliamentary Elections in 2000, but it
is worth noting that similar assertions were made about the relationship between
19
violence and that election, and, furthermore, these assertions were upheld in a
19
Here see, for example, Amani (2002), Organised Violence and Torture in the June 2000 General
Election in Zimbabwe, HARARE: AMANI TRUST; Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum (2000), Who
is responsible? A preliminary analysis of pre-election violence in Zimbabwe, HARARE: ZIMBABWE
HUMAN RIGHTS NGO FORUM; Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum (2001), Who was
responsible? A consolidated analysis of pre-election violence in Zimbabwe, HARARE: ZIMBABWE
HUMAN RIGHTS NGO FORUM.
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