An in-depth Study on the impacts of Operation Murambatsvina • • • Shelter Sources of income Property Assuming on the basis of the ActionAid data, that Harare was 60% of the national loss, then this figure would look more like Z$1,221,335,000.00 [US$73,574,397.00]. Of course, this only deals with direct losses, and does not include the potential losses of earnings from rents, selling, small scale manufacturing, services, etc. Additionally, we should recall the comments of the recent Article IV consultation by the International Monetary Fund. Noting the massive decline in the Zimbabwe economy, the IMF commented: Zimbabwe’s human development indicators—once among the best in sub-Saharan Africa—have deteriorated sharply to a rank of 147th out of 177 countries in the world. More than two out of three Zimbabweans are unemployed while poverty and emigration have risen sharply. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has been left largely unchecked, with the infection rate estimated at about 25 percent of the adult population. Life expectancy has declined to below 40 years from around 60 years fifteen years ago, while child mortality has risen sharply to 126 (per 1,000 live births) from 90 in 1995, partly reflecting declining immunizations and the AIDS pandemic.xxxii Clearly the IMF has expressed considerable concern over the plight of ordinary Zimbabweans, and, in the assessment of the Executive Board of the IMF, they commented further: Executive Directors expressed deep concern over the continued sharp economic and social decline in Zimbabwe, with prospects of continued triple-digit inflation, further output declines, and increased poverty. Food security is an urgent issue, given the sharp fall in agricultural production. Directors noted that stagnant export earnings and the necessary rise in food imports will squeeze non-food imports, increasing Zimbabwe’s vulnerability to external shocks. In addition, the substantial humanitarian and economic consequences of “Operation Restore Order” pose further downside risks to the outlook. Directors observed that without a bold change in policy direction, the economic outlook will remain bleak, with particularly detrimental effects on the poorest segments of the population. Overall, the IMF report indicates the need for wide-reaching reform to be undertaken by the Zimbabwe Government in order to stop the economic decline, and ameliorate the consequences for the very poor. Given the dearth in all these estimates, and the pessimistic views over the likely performance of the Zimbabwe economy, it is clearly important for ActionAid International to understand how Operation Murambatsvina has impeded the ability of ordinary Zimbabweans to cushion them against this exceedingly harsh economic climate. 11