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Executive Summary:
This report covers all the reports received by the NCA for February 2005, coming from 8
Provinces, and 56 Constituencies. It summarises the position that pertained during the last 2
weeks of February. Unfortunately, no data had been submitted from either Manicaland or
Mashonaland West by the time of writing, but it is submitted that the data nonetheless do give a
good overview of the national picture in February 2005.
The report does not give all the details for each Province and the related constituencies, but
attempts to provide an overview of the election climate during February 2005. Detailed reports
on each Province have been issued previously, and this report summarises these reports, as well
as undertaking some preliminary analysis of the trends. Those who wish the more detailed
reports should send an email to the NCA at info@nca.org.zw.
As can be seen from the consolidated Election Irregularity [EI] ratings [see below], no Province
during February 2005, amongst those sampled, has shown a satisfactory election climate. Harare
would seem the worst of all Provinces to date, whilst Matabeleland North seems the best. It is
evident that the trend described above accords with the observations of previous elections:
Harare and the Mashonaland Provinces generally have shown more frequent instances of election
irregularities than other Provinces.
There is marked variability within the Provinces, although most constituencies have EI ratings
that are unacceptably high. Bikita West and Hwange East had the lowest EI ratings, and there
the electoral climate can be described as wholly conforming to the SADC Principles and
Guidelines. In all, 5 constituencies had EI ratings of 3 or lower, and this is what might be
expected of an election climate approximating the SADC Principles and Guidelines.
Of the 10 worst constituencies, 9 were from Mashonaland Provinces, with 7 of these from Harare
alone. The shift towards urban constituencies showing a poorer election climate than rural
constituencies marks a change from previous elections, and suggests that the battleground for
this election is in the urban areas, where the Movement for Democratic Change has been the
stronger of the two main parties since 2000.
The citizens report that political violence is widespread, and, although actual physical violence is
reduced on previous elections, hate speech, threats, and intimidation are widely reported. This
would strongly suggest that the psychological climate, so essential to genuine elections and open
choice, is severely lacking currently in Zimbabwe.
Militia bases were reported in 40% of the constituencies sampled during February. There was no
obvious trend, and the reports indicated that bases were equally likely to be in urban as well as
rural areas. This is something of a change from previous elections when militia bases were
generally more likely to be found in rural areas. The presence of militia bases is extremely
important in recent Zimbabwean elections as there is a decided correlation between the presence
of militia bases and political violence and other irregularities in a constituency. In view of the
importance of militia, we undertook an analysis of the data as it relates to militia. This analysis
showed strong associations between the presence of militia and a wide range of electoral
irregularities: the association was not merely with violence, but with interference with basic
freedoms as well.
It is also worth noting that voter education is extremely low, only 25% of the constituencies
sampled reported voter education taking place, and, in those constituencies where voter
education has taken place, this has usually been by the political parties. This would seem to
reflect the dual effect of the new electoral laws and disruptions due to the NGO Bill producing a
serious diminution of NGO activities compared with previous elections. Here it must be stressed
National Constitutional Assembly: Election Climate Reports.