Intimidation Militia base reported Inter-party violence Intra-party violence Political use of food 91% 55% 59% 73% 77% 87% 60% 69% 79% 90% Thus, it does seem that the effects of the electoral irregularities were not simple and direct. The results reported above in Table 13 suggest that it was simply the differences in electoral irregularity that explain the changes in the MDC’s vote share, and that the different levels of electoral irregularity between the rural and urban areas that explained the changes. Thus, it does seem on our data that the differences are to be explained, at least on this simple analysis, by the differences in the levels of electoral irregularity seen in the two settings: there was greater interference with basic freedoms, political violence, and political use of food in the urban areas as opposed to the rural areas. There is however clearly a need for more complex statistical analysis to be done in order to more precisely tease out the variables involved, but this will not change the overall conclusions stated here: the MDC lost or won votes according to the amount of unlawful pressure applied by ZanuPF supporters in the main. Conclusions As is common knowledge, and in advance of the poll, the NCA expressed strong reservations about the constitutional, legal and administrative framework for these elections, and stated publicly that the poll should be boycotted. It is now evident that this was not a posture. The elections are highly disputed, and there is prima facie evidence of many irregularities, the majority of which stem from the exact problems indicated by the NCA in adopting its position on the election. The position of the NCA is also vindicated by its monitoring of the pre-election climate, and, as has been seen from all the reports issued prior to the polling, this climate was seriously flawed. There can be little doubt that there was sustained and illegal pressure applied to political parties and the citizens of Zimbabwe in an effort, overwhelmingly by ZanuPF and its supporters, in order to influence the vote. As we have demonstrated above, this pressure can even be understood to have produced the changes in voting patterns observed. Whilst the analysis of the elections will undoubtedly continue in the coming months, both in the courts and elsewhere, the overall conclusion is unlikely to change: the elections were flawed, unfree, and unfair! No other conclusion is possible. A note on methodology As is indicated below, the NCA is a national network of member organizations and individual members. This national network allows the NCA to sample opinion around the country, and this has allowed the NCA to develop the methodology behind the Election Climate Reporting system. A standardized reporting format was developed for this system, which consists of the 8 areas, or “election atmospherics” that are indicated at the beginning of the report: • Freedom of Association; Freedom of Assembly; Freedom of Movement; Freedom of Expression; Incidence of Political Violence; Disputes over electoral procedures and electoral irregularities; Occurrence of voter education; Use of food as a political weapon. National Constitutional Assembly: THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. FLAWED, UNFREE AND UNFAIR!