ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK Comparison of the FVR with Zimstats Census Data In this section, the FVR is compared to both official (ZimStats) 2018 census projections and the 2012 census figures. Generally, the FVR population of registrants is lower than projected census data with more than 1.5million eligible voters translating to 21%. The table below is a comparison of the eligible versus actual registered voters. • • • Table 41: Eligible versus Actual registered votersA summary Gender Men Women Total • % Projected Difference Difference Census (2018) 2,622,516 3,349,462 -726,946 -21.70 3,073,190 3,874,665 -801,475 -20.69 5,695,706 7,224,128 -1,528,421 -21.16 FVR • The Table above indicates that a smaller number of people registered to vote when compared to the ZimStats' 2018 adult population projections. Overall, 21% of the projected population did not register to vote. • • • Further analysis shows that there many cases across provinces, rural/urban location, districts and constituencies where the FVR populations are higher than both census and projected populations. These are listed below: • In Bulawayo FVR population figures are more than the 2012 census and 2018 projections for the age group 60+ years. • For Harare urban VR population is lower in most ages except 45-49 age category • Data for Manicaland urban show that FVR figures are more than census data for ages range; 45-49 • For Manicaland Rural, FVR data greater than both census figures for 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 55-59, 60-64 and 65-69. • In Mashonaland Central Urban FVR population is lower than the census figures across all age groups • For Mashonaland Central Rural FVR population is noticeably higher than census data in ages 3549 40-44, 45-49 and 65-69 • Mashonaland East urban, FVR population is generally lower than census figures across all age groups • Mashonaland East Rural, ages 35-49 and 55-69 • • have higher FVR population compared to census data. Mashonaland West Urban, FVR population higher in ages 45-49years and slightly 60-64. In Mashonaland West Rural, FVR figures are higher census projections in the 35-49 years categories. Masvingo Urban, FVR lower than census for most age groups except for 45-49. Masvingo Rural, for age categories 40-49years and 60-74years, both 2012 census figures and 2018 projections are lower than FVR population. Matabeleland North urban, FVR population is higher than census data in the 30-64years age categories. Matabeleland North Rural, in ages 35-49, 5569 FVR population is higher than census figures. FVR population for Matabeleland South urban is higher than census data in ages 40-49. Matabeleland South FVR population is higher than census population in categories45-49 and 60-64years. In Midlands urban FVR population is higher than census data in ages 35-39 and 40-49years FVR population for Midlands Rural is higher than census in ages 35-49 then 55-79years only. It is noteworthy that there are significantly few instances where the FVR records higher than census data registration for Zimbabweans aged 39 and below. As already observed; 56% of registered voters fall under this blanket age group (20-24; 2529; 30-34; 35-39). This may explain why the usually higher than census data across provinces has no significant effect on the overall picture which shows that registrants are less than both the baseline census and projected figures. Below, we highlight the disaggregation of the total registered population by urban/rural location and then by whole population. In the process, we compare FVR data with both the census figures and projected population of Zimbabweans aged 18 and above. The figure below compares population of registrants in urban Zimbabwe against urban populations as at both the baseline census figures and 2018 projections. 54 FINAL REPORT OF THE 2018 VOTERS' ROLL AUDIT