This pre-election survey reflects the public mood at the time of fieldwork between June 25
and July 6, 2018 (henceforth “early July”). In order to capture the changing nature of the
electoral landscape, the latest results are compared with results from a baseline survey
conducted some two months earlier, between April 28 and May 12, 2018 (“early May”). The
baseline (“early May”) survey occurred before party primary elections, the release of party
manifestos, and the June 14 nomination of candidates. The final (“early July”) survey was
different in this sense: Voters knew their candidates and where they purportedly stood in
policy terms; as possible participants in primary elections, voters may even have had a hand
in selecting candidates.
The margin of sampling error in both surveys was +/-2 percentage points at a 95%
confidence level.
Key findings
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As of early July 2018, Zimbabweans were ready for elections: 86% of eligible voters
(and 97% of registered voters) said they were “probably” or “definitely” going to vote.
At this time, Zimbabweans saw a somewhat more open political atmosphere than for
previous campaigns. Fears of free expression and electoral violence had declined
slightly, though both remained high (76% and 43%, respectively).
More people reported attending ruling-party election rallies than opposition-party
rallies, especially in rural areas. But more people, especially in urban areas, thought
that the opposition’s presidential candidate would perform better at “creating jobs
for the people.”
Compared to the early May survey, by early July the race for the presidency had
tightened. Among citizens who were both registered to vote and likely to vote, 40%
said they would vote for the ZANU-PF and 37% said they would vote for the MDC
(combined party and Alliance).
Depending on how undeclared voters (20%) ultimately decide to vote, either party
had a chance to win the presidential election on the first round.
Zimbabweans continued to worry that the election would not end well: More than
four in 10 expressed concerns that incorrect election results would be announced,
that the armed forces would not respect the election result, and that post-election
violence would occur.
Perhaps reflecting these concerns, Zimbabweans as a whole – regardless of whether
they planned to vote or which candidate they preferred to vote for – still considered
the ZANU-PF the more likely winner in the race for the presidency.
Will voters vote?
From a vantage point one month before the election, the survey results hint at the possibility
of high voter turnout (Figure 1). As of early July, some 88% of eligible voters (that is, adults 18
years or older) said they had registered to vote, up from 85% in early May. Apparently some
would-be voters registered late. Moreover, 86% of all survey respondents (and 97% of
registered voters) asserted that they were “probably” or “definitely” going to vote. While selfreported registration rates and stated turnout intentions undoubtedly exceed actual rates,
citizens nonetheless signaled a great deal of popular interest in a high-stakes election.
Copyright ©2018
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