Figure 8: Voting intentions in the presidential election | by urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | July 2018 100% 80% 60% 40% 49% 48% 37% 40% 30% 26% 23% 20% 19% 20% 3% 3% 3% 0% Urban Rural MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance Refused/Don't know/Would not vote Average ZANU-PF Other parties That said, a breakdown of voting intentions by province reveals the closeness of the presidential race. In early July, the ZANU-PF was ahead in five (mostly rural) provinces: the three Mashonalands plus Midlands and Masvingo. By contrast, the MDC-T (party and Alliance) enjoyed a lead in the two Matabeleland provinces, Manicaland, and (urban) Harare and Bulawayo (Figure 9). Note, however, that in terms of the population of registered voters, the three Matabeleland provinces are low-yield sources of votes.7 Figure 9: Voting intentions in the presidential election | by province | Zimbabwe | July 2018 Bulawayo Matabeleland North Harare Matabeleland South Manicaland Mashonaland East Midlands Mashonaland Central Masvingo Mashonaland West 18% 26% 30% 35% 37% 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 0% ZANU-PF 20% 50% 49% 45% 38% 44% 31% 30% 25% 26% 36% 40% 60% 80% 100% MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance 7 Given smaller sample sizes at the provincial level, the margin of sampling error is +/-7.5 percentage points. But with the exception of Matabeleland South, province-level gaps in expressed support between the parties exceeded this margin. Copyright ©2018 8