On the one hand, they hold out hope that the emerging constitution will change politics and their lives
for the better. They are impatient for the new constitution to take shape and replace the old one. 38%
want the existing constitution repealed and another 28% want it amended. 62% reckon that the COPAC
constitutional outreach process was meaningful. They also say they are tired of being consulted on
constitutions, and want to see the job done. They definitely want to see the constitution going to
referendum before a next round of elections.
On the other hand, only 42% reckon that citizens’ views will be reflected in a new constitution. Only 30%
believe that a constitution will be produced that will be good for democracy and human rights.
Simultaneously, they are certain as to what they want from a new constitution – a limitation of
presidential terms, no appointed members of parliament, restriction of the role of traditional leaders to
local government, independent courts and an independent election management body.
The Zimbabweans in the survey speak positively of the COPAC constitutional outreach process – but
only 24% had attended a meeting. They observed relatively limited violence around the process –
although about 1 in 7 of the attendees report that they had seen political parties use violence to get
their way in constitutional deliberations. Spokespersons had been appointed by political parties, mostly
at local level, and speeches and prayers had their political content. Generally, however, they believe
that the deliberations were fine, and participants say they did not feel intimidated articulating their
constitutional wishes.
IV: Party support and declaring vote intention
The survey delivers the result that the MDC-T has suffered a substantial drop of support in the time
since the previous September 2009 Freedom House survey – from 55% to 38%. ZANU-PF appears to
have grown its support by 5 percentage points from 12% to 17%. The MDC-M has effectively
disappeared, with an indicated support level of below 1%. ZAPU-Dabengwa remains in the sub-1% zone.
Simultaneously, 42% of respondents chose not to declare their vote preference – a percentage that was
substantially up from the previous, September 2009, Freedom House survey’s 31%. Given the violence
structure of Zimbabwean society it is probably not surprising that so many chose not to declare. It
remains possible that the MDC-T retains substantial levels of hidden support in the ranks of the 42% of
non-declarants.
The MDC-T drop is not entirely explained through the rest of the survey data. The survey indicates that
the Inclusive Government is widely credited with good performances. The MDC-T is receiving substantial
credit for the performance. Simultaneously, the MDC-T in the time since the 2009 survey has been
confirmed to be the subject partner in the IG, with effective power remaining in the hands of Mugabe
and the security forces. This is likely to have dented the MDC-T image. In the political context it has also
been evident that the MDC-T has been less able to be simultaneously effective as party and as
government partner.
The current survey contained items which can be used as ‘parallel indicators’ of party support (besides
directly asking respondents who they would support in an election). These measures were included in
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