4.   What  is  behind  the  apparent  swing  to  ZANU  PF  in  Matabeleland?     Discussions  with  residents  of  the  three  provinces  suggest  that  Bulawayo  and  Matabeleland  South   are  the  two  provinces  most  acutely  affected  by  the  massive  diasporisation  that  has  affected  the   whole  nation  since  2005.28    This  impacts  in  two  ways:  firstly,  many  assumed  residents  of  Bulawayo   and  Matabeleland  South  are  now  effectively  living  outside  of  the  country;  secondly,  many  others   live  in  a  state  of  ‘circular  migration’,  now  being  in  South  Africa  and  then  back  in  Matabeleland,  with   seriously  divided  loyalties  and  less  sense  of  national  belonging.  Such  citizens,  feeling  abandoned  by   the  state  and  fed  up  with  seeing  no  benefit  to  the  region  out  of  voting  for  the  opposition  in  multiple   elections  since  1980  and  again  since  2000,  have  not  bothered  to  register  or  vote.       Matabeleland  South  has  moved  since  2000  from  having  a  59%  vote  for  the  MDC  at  House  of   Assembly  level,  to  almost  half  this  figure:  MDC-­‐A  won  30.3%  of  the  vote  in  2018.  As  previously   indicated,  only  one  seat  was  won  by  MDC-­‐A  out  of  13  seats  in  this  province,  while  a  further  three   were  lost  on  a  divided  opposition  vote  (graph  8).  Overall,  however,  the  non-­‐ZANU  PF  vote  in   Matabeleland  South  was  around  47%,  indicating  that  almost  one  out  of  two  voters  did  not  want  to   be  represented  by  ZANU  PF  at  House  of  Assembly  level.  This  is  nonetheless  a  significant  decrease  by   26%  in  the  opposition  vote,  from  59%  in  2000.       Residents  who  were  asked  why  they  think  there  was  an  increased  vote  for  ZANU  PF  had  various   explanations.     •   There  were  too  many  oppositions,  and  none  of  them  were  very  convincing.  Most  of  them   had  no  more  than  token  Ndebele  representation  in  their  presidiums,  compared  to  the   original  MDC  of  2000.  If  there  had  been  an  outstanding  Ndebele  leader  with  national   potential  among  any  of  them,  the  modern  equivalent  of  Joshua  Nkomo,  it  would  have  been   very  different.     o   This  also  explained  the  more  diffuse  vote  in  Matabeleland,  which  generally  had  a   bigger  vote  for  the  myriad  of  oppositions  than  was  nationally  the  case.  The  combined   opposition  vote  in  the  three  provinces,  less  the  MDC-­‐A  and  ZANU-­‐PF  vote  in  this   predominantly  two-­‐horse  race  was  as  follows:     §   Bulawayo:  25.4%       §   Matabeleland  North:  22.7%.   §   Matabeleland  South:  16.44%   Comprising  around  a  quarter  of  Matabeleland  votes,  these  voters  and  the  parties  they  voted   for  need  to  be  courted  by  the  dominant  parties  ahead  of  the  next  election.  Already  ZANU  PF   is  drawing  in  dissenting  factions  such  as  the  G40  and  the  National  Patriotic  Front.  While  the                                                                                                               28  See  multiple  previous  publications  on  this  by  current  authors  and  others,  including,   http://solidaritypeacetrust.org/1724/hoping-­‐without-­‐hope-­‐murambatsvina-­‐ten-­‐years-­‐on/.     23