ZESN Polling Station Analysis
In the absence of 2012 Census age structure data; ZESN used age structure data from the 2002
Census to estimate eligible voters. Age structure, though, is not uniform across the country. Age
structure data is only publicly available by province with significant variance between the
provinces. Based on the 2012 Census population figures and using the 2002 Census age structure
data the estimated total number of eligible voters for the Harmonised Elections at 6,365,411 (see
Table 1 for calculation). ZESN calculated not only a national estimate, but also estimated eligible
voters for all ten provinces and all 1,964 wards.
This is not a definitive figure for eligible voters for the Harmonised Elections. Actual 2012 Census
age structure data would be preferable, but as noted is not publicly available. Age structure not
only varies between provinces, but within provinces, but again 2002 Census data on age structure
by ward is not publicly available. Further, it is important to remember that eligible voters are not the
same as registered voters. These figures will differ from the ultimate numbers of registered voters
as not everyone will register to vote and some people will register at a location other than where
they were counted for the 2012 Census. However, despite these short comings, these figures
provide a reasonable basis for analysing the applicability of the 2013 Constitutional Referendum
list of polling stations for the 2013 Harmonised Elections.
ZESN hopes that similar analysis could be conducted by the Commission using actual voter
registration data, and the organisation is available to collaborate with the Commission on this.
Provincial Analysis of Estimated Eligible Voters per Polling Station
Based on the 2013 Constitutional Referendum list of polling stations, ZESN estimates nationally
that there are 673 eligible voters per polling station (see Table 2). This is similar to the 2008
Harmonised Elections when there was nationally a polling station for every 606 registered voters.
Table 2: Estimated Eligible Voters per Polling Station by Province
2013 Estimates
Province
Polling
Stations
Estimated
Eligible
Voters
2008 Actual
Estimated
Eligible
Voters per
Polling
Station
Polling
Stations
Registered
Registered Voters per
Voters
Polling
Station
Bulawayo
325
367,178
1,130
241
313,459
1,301
Harare
830
1,216,955
1,466
796
766,478
963
1,297
807,300
622
1,147
709,664
619
833
547,171
657
832
448,477
539
Mashonaland East
1,037
641,788
619
1,069
624,630
584
Mashonaland West
1,201
710,470
592
1,164
582,989
501
Masvingo
1,205
668,972
555
1,199
699,199
583
Matabeleland North
765
334,742
438
765
345,264
451
Matabeleland South
622
308,271
496
639
342,280
536
Midlands
1,341
762,564
569
1,342
739,510
551
Grand Total
9,456
6,365,411
673
9,194
5,571,950
606
Manicaland
Mashonaland Central
3 of 19