build a large support base and to register their voters over the last five years, remains unresolved. The split in the opposition vote cost them dearly, and effectively handed an unassailable two‐thirds majority to ZANU PF in this election. If the opposition had retained the 17 seats they lost to split voting, they would have kept ZANU PF’s House of Assembly majority to 67%, instead of its current 79%. The figures from the last five elections all point to the unlikelihood of any opposition party unseating ZANU PF in 2018, unless ZANU PF itself faces dramatic internal challenges which shift the political landscape. This conclusion is in line with the arguments made in Part One of this report. The socio‐economic power base of Zimbabwe has been significantly shifted to entrench a ZANU PF elite and to ensure their support in rural and some urban areas via patronage and coercion, and the opposition needs to engage with this reality. Having a support base in Harare, other small urban centres and in three increasingly depopulating western provinces will not be sufficient to dislodge ZANU PF. While acknowledging the uneven electoral context, the inability of the combined opposition to break the ceiling of 1.4 million votes since 2002 should be seen as a challenge to them going forward. In particular, the inability in 2005 of the united MDC, and in 2008 and 2013 of MDC‐T contesting alone to break the 1.2 million‐vote barrier, does not bode well. In three out of the last four elections, ZANU PF has scored comfortably over 1.5 million votes – and over 2 million in 2013. It is unclear how many people would vote for the opposition if the voting environment was genuinely fair and free from intimidation, or if hundreds of thousands of voters currently in the diaspora were enfranchised. But the likelihood of either of these events occurring before 2018 is remote. The democratic movement needs to rebuild and restrategise, bearing in mind the need to engage in new ways with a dynamic and changing electorate, particularly in rural areas, resettled areas and in the informal mining sectors. These are all parts of the electorate where ZANU PF, by whatever means, has convincingly captured the vote in this election.   45