4. 4.1 Government Ability to Address the Impact of Operation Restore Order Introduction Operation Restore Order will have short and longer term effects on the capacity of the Government to address the basic needs of those affected and its population as a whole. The Operation has caused the destruction of livelihoods, homes, personal belongings and business premises, and the displacement of an estimated 570,000 people. Immediate needs include food, shelter, access to water and sanitation and health care. Longer term needs include the restoration of livelihoods, provision for affordable housing, education and other social services. 4.2 Food Security Operation Restore Order took place at a time of acute food shortages in the country. The failure of the 2005 harvest due to drought has led to an officially acknowledged food deficit of 1.2 MT of maize for the 2005-2006 season. Meeting this deficit will require importing food at an estimated cost of USD 250 to 300 million87 at a time of chronic shortage of foreign exchange and competing import demands, especially for fuel, energy and inputs required for agriculture and industry.88 The Government has allocated to date Z$ 100 billion (USD 10 million) to feed 2.4 million people in need of food aid.89 The fact that Zimbabwe has no ready access to international credit, as well as a serious lack of foreign exchange implies that it is highly unlikely that Government will be able to fulfill basic food requirements without substantial external assistance. A major concern is timely delivery of food and transport. Meeting the bulk of the deficit would imply the transport of about 120,000 to 140,000 metric tonnes per month. Such an amount is likely to require recourse to more expensive road transport as it exceeds the capacity of the rail system by an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 MT per month. 90 4.3 Shelter Operation Garikai (Reconstruction/Resettlement) was officially launched during the mission as a reconstruction effort. This new operation involves an announced capital outlay of Z$ 3 trillion (USD 300 million) with housing topping the priority list, followed by factory shells and market stalls91 . A first installment of Z$ 1 trillion (USD 100 million) is due for immediate disbursement and is scheduled for completion by August 2005. This expenditure was not foreseen and was not subject to a specific allocation in the 2005 budget.92 Its effective implementation would imply 87 Including transport, clearing and forwarding and distribution Identifiable foreign exchange earnings are projected to be around USD 1.4 billion for 2005 while expenditures on fuel are projected to be around USD 900 million. Foreign currency reserves are estimated at 3 days. 89 The Herald, 7 July 2005. 90 Assuming that contracts are signed and payments are made by August for regular delivery starting from September 2005 through to the next harvesting period in April 2006, and that the rail system is properly maintained. 91 Sunday Mail, 26 June 2005, Presentation by Minister Chombo to the SESG at the Inter-Ministerial Task Force meeting, 30 June 2005 92 Statement by Herbert Murerwa, Minister of Finance, in parliament, reported by The Herald, 7 July 2005 88 47