Figure 1
Distribution of violations reported by province
[n=477]
Where possible the incidents reported were related to an electoral constituency, which gave a total of
48 constituencies where the incident could be placed in a constituency: 12 28 of these were won by
the MDC and 20 by ZANU PF. The average winning margin for the MDC in these constituencies was
6,101 votes, whilst the margin for ZANU PF was 5,506. The overall vote for the MDC was 286,732,
whilst that for ZANU PF was 242,696, with the difference about 2 percentages points on the turn out
in the March 2008 poll. It is also worth noting that the majority of the constituencies came from the
Mashonaland and Manicaland Provinces, representing either seats lost to the MDC or won by ZANU PF
with reduced turn outs. As regards the latter, and without ZEC releasing the detailed results of the
Presidential poll in March, it is interesting to speculate whether this represented either a lower poll in
the Presidential election or indications that ZANU PF voters actually voted for Morgan Tsvangirai.
Either way, the supporters of the MDC suffered as a consequence.
12
For a substantial number of records [n=180], it was not possible to easily determine in which constituency the incident
occurred, and hence this analysis could only be carried out for 495 cases.