government officials, including the Deputy
Minister of Finance, Terrence Mukupe, and the
Advisor to the President, Christopher
Mutsvangwa, are reported to have told
different meetings that the military will not
agree to hand over power to the opposition if it
wins. The Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF)
2
held a press conference on 4 July 2018 where
they were asked if they would handover power
in the event of an opposition victory and they
said they will follow the constitution. This is a
position that civil society says is not an
assurance of neutrality since in November
2017 the military removed Robert Mugabe in a
military coup while waving the constitution.
The recent Afrobarometer survey shows
growing mistrust in the military and fears that
the military may interfere with the electoral
outcome.3 This makes the military element a
faultline, creating the potential for instability.
The Collapse of Confidence in Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC),
an independent commission mandated by the
constitution to run the elections in Zimbabwe,
has done everything in and outside its power to
ensure that it loses the people’s confidence in
its impartiality and capacity to deliver a free,
fair, credible and uncontested election.4 Apart
from blatantly breaking the law, ZEC has
managed the process in a way that is as opaque
as possible, in flagrant violation of the SADC
Guidelines on Elections. This has set the stage
for confrontation, making the 2018 elections a
rich arena for violence. Attempts by
stakeholders at dispute resolution have been
met with unmitigated arrogance that displays
an unwillingness to ensure peaceful resolution
of disputes. This has resulted in an
unprecedented number of cases being brought
to the courts. A good number of
Zimbabweans, especially victims of past
violations, do not believe the judiciary is
independent, which explains why the current
ZANU PF leader Emmerson Mnangagwa did
not resort to the courts when he had a dispute
with Robert Mugabe. Thus, the collapse of
confidence in both ZEC and the judiciary is a
recipe for disaster. History teaches us that
where people lose confidence in the
institutions that are supposed to help them,
they usually take the law into their own hands.
The Escalating Language of Violence
Wherever hate speech goes, violence follows.
Leaders of the main political parties in this
election have perfected the language of
violence. The emergence of social media has
created an army of social media activists (so
called varakashi) who are determined to fan
the tensions day and night. Despite the signing
of the Peace Pledge, facilitated by the National
Peace and Reconciliation Commission
(NPRC), the language of hate has continued.
Opposition leaders have mobilised their
supporters, threatening to rise against an
outcome that does not translate to victory for
them. This comes at the back of senior
government officials claiming that the military
will not recognise opposition victory. Hate
speech against female candidates has also
been reported.
The Increase in Cases of Violence and
Intimidation
Since the announcement of the election date
on 30 May 2018, the Zimbabwe Human
Rights NGO Forum has recorded an increase in
cases of violence related to elections, the most
serious of which was the explosion at White
City Stadium on 23 June 2018, which left over
40 people injured and 2 people dead.
Traditional leaders who are required by the
constitution to be impartial have willy nilly
violated the Constitution with Chief
2 See report in the Newsday of 5 July 2018 available here
https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/07/army-dodges-questions-on-power-transfer/
3 See full survey here
http://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ab_r7_dispatchno223_zimbabwe_presidential_race_tightens
.pdf
4 See summary report here June/July 2018 Afrobarometer survey here
http://afrobarometer.org/press/zimbabweans-satisfied-voter-registration-doubtful-about-electoral-commission
2
NTJWG PRE-ELECTION TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE BRIEFING – 26 JULY 2018