Figure 7 : Political party affiliation – Rural versus Urban
90%
80%
79%
70%
60%
50%
65%
71%
64%
54%
47%
40%
30%
20%
ZANU PF
36%
MDC-T
26%
17%
10%
17%
16%
6%
0%
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
2004
2005
2009
What is more remarkable is the huge growth in support from the rural respondents for MDCT, paralleling the drop in support for ZANU-PF and clearly reflected in the success had by
MDC-T in elections in 2008. The shift for urban respondents from support for ZANU-PF is
equally dramatic, from 54% in 2004 down to a mere 6% in 2009.
A fair conclusion from the findings is that launching OM did ZANU-PF no favours when it
came to political party support and voting.
Conclusions
Here we were concerned with the less material consequences of OM: how Zimbabwean
citizen’s agency was affected, and, in particular, examining the finding from the previous
study that risk aversion remained more common in urban than rural citizens. Even in the
context of an increase in risk taking by 2014, urban citizens were less likely to be risk takers
than rural citizens.
It is not remarkable that OM, as an urban-focused exercise, would result in severe
consequences for the targets, but it is very interesting that the effects were so much more
widespread than merely the displacement and impoverishment of urban residents. We have
found effects for every measure we took: OM resulted in greater immediate Lived Poverty,
lowered Political and Community Participation, reduced Political Trust, and hugely
influenced changes in Political Affiliation. The effects were generally worse for urban
residents: there were similar effects for rural folk, but generally of lower magnitude.
The most startling effect was upon Political Affiliation. If the oft-speculated intention behind
OM was to undermine the support base for MDC-T, this clearly backfired, and the
consequence was an enormous shift in allegiance from ZANU-PF to MDC-T, and
remarkably, in the traditional support base for the party in the rural areas. Thus, in retrospect,
the result of the election in 2008 is not surprising. However, the period from 2005 to 2008
was also a time of hyperinflation and severe stress upon everyone’s livelihoods. It is probable
that OM and economic hardship combined to produce the electoral result of not only giving
MDC-T a majority in parliament, but also winning a significant number of rural seats.
12
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