Executive Summary
As we demonstrated in a recent study on risk aversion, Operation Murambatsvina [OM] had
severe effects upon the population of Zimbabwe (Masunungure et al. 2017). The percentage
of Zimbabweans that reported being “risk takers” in 1999 was 84%, but this dropped to a
paltry 13% in 2005. Possibly the worst example of forced displacement in the past four
decades, OM was recognised for having extreme adverse effects upon citizens’ shelter,
livelihoods, health, and psychological well-being, but there have only been few studies on the
long-term effects on citizen’s agency. An Afrobarometer report in 2006 detailed many of the
economic and social consequences of OM (Afrobarometer. 2006), but what has not been
examined in any great detail has been the consequences of OM on political agency.
The present study examined the changes in aspects of citizen agency – political participation,
community participation, political trust and political affiliation – as well as lived poverty for
three periods, 2004, 2005 and 2009. Indices were constructed from the Afrobarometer
questions for each of these variables, converted into binary scores, and then analysis done.
Comparisons were made for residence – rural or urban, as this has been shown to be a
distinguishing factor in the risk aversion study – as well for political affiliation as political
party affiliation has been shown in previous research to define two very distinct and opposing
groups.
The first examination was of the effects of OM itself for rural and urban residents.
Unsurprisingly, given the nature of the displacement exercise, all effects were significantly
worse for urban residents: all 10 indices of the effects of OM, from having a home destroyed
to having to stay in the open, were worse for urban residents. However, Lived Poverty,
measured as shortages of food, water, medical care, cooking fuel, and cash income, was
generally worse for rural residents, except that urban residents showed a marked increase in
Lived Poverty from 2004 to 2005, sustained through to 2009 for access to food, clean water
and cooking fuel.
Contrasting rural and urban residents showed a range of different effects from 2004 to 2009.
There were differences in all the variables examined, but few returned in 2009 to the levels of
2004.
Political Participation – this was reduced by OM, but restored in most ways for both rural
and urban residents, but, as always, all Zimbabweans are careful about what they say in
public.
Community Participation – by 2009, this was reduced from the levels of 2004. Very few in
either group reported attending demonstrations or protests, irrespective of the year, and rural
residents reported much higher frequencies – largely unchanged over the three years – of
attending community meetings. This requires careful interpretation since there is strong
compulsion to attend meetings, whether called by traditional leaders or political parties.
Political Trust – this remained consistently high over the three surveys for the courts, but
trust in the police reduced from 2004 to 2009 for urban residents. Trust in the more political
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