election result defied political reality: Robert Mugabe got more than a million more votes
than Morgan Tsvangirai, and careful analysis could not establish how this was possible.7
Furthermore, the basis for the alleged swing in the loyalty of the voters was subsequently
shown to suggest rigging.8
The obvious next step for the victors was to build on the advantages given them by the GNU,
make the small, but obvious decisions that would produce re-engagement with the
international world. The steps were easy and all were agreed at the SAPES/Ned Conference
in 2014 that only a few essential steps would be necessary:
Create policy consistency;
Clear commitment on the protection of property rights;
Re-define the conditions for investment by changing the indigenisation theology;
Undertake a land audit;
Rehabilitate and rationalise the parastatal sector.
None of this happened. Rather ZANU-PF went into a sustained conflict over succession, a
conflict that had been brewing ever since Dzikamai Mavahaire raised the issue in 1999, and
exacerbated in 2004 with the Tsholotsho Declaration. However, it now appears that the most
recent internal conflict was less a faction fight between Lacoste and G40 than a sustained
purge to remove the over-weaning power of the military that had been gaining in power since
2008.
The story of the last stages of the inevitable coup are now commonplace.
First, it began with the purge of the Mujuru faction. This started with the death (or murder) of
Solomon Mujuru, culminated in the expulsion of the entire Mujuru faction, and almost
decimated the party. However, this purge obviously opened the space for Mnangagwa and the
military, and the deeper problem began to manifest itself.
Then began the slow and relentless campaign against Mnangagwa, and the attempt to limit
the power of the military. This has led inevitably to the events of the past few weeks, and the
unfolding of a strategy that clearly was a long time in the brewing. It is very hard to believe
that the events of the past few weeks were a spontaneous response to the sacking of
Mnangagwa and Chiwenga: the process seems far too well-organised to believe this.
Here we are today and facing the overthrow of the constitution.
Has there been a coup?
It seems to be the fact that no-one is willing to face this publicly, and derives quite simply
from the actions of the military. Whether we call this call this a military assisted transition the
enforced resignation of the president, a ―soft coup‖, or even the ―non-coup‖ coup, the
military came onto the streets in defiance of the constitution. We might all celebrate the
removal of Robert Mugabe, but the manner of his removal violated the constitution. Any
cursory reading of the Constitution will tell you this. Furthermore, support of the people, after
7
RAU (2014), "Numbers out of Tune? An examination of the vote in Hamonised July 2013 Election." Full
Report. Governance Programme, Research and Advocacy Unit [RAU] 10th April 2014, Harare: Research &
Advocacy Unit. [http://researchandadvocacyunit.org/publication/feminism-4]
8
Bratton, M., Dulani, B., & Masunungure, E. (2016). Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections:
Survey-based methods in Zimbabwe. Electoral Studies, 42, 10-21.
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379416000068]