MEMORANDUM
Subject:
Date:
Analysis of ZEC Presidential Results by Polling Station [FINAL]
17 August 2018
Summary
The ten files in total contained ZEC Presidential Results by Polling Station. These files
contain presidential results information for 10,984 polling stations. The files are not without
errors. But these are relatively few in number to systematically benefit any candidate.
The polling station results reported by the SBO observers as collected at the polling stations
is highly consistent with ZEC Presidential Results by Polling Station. For the 750 sampled
polling stations, 96.8% of the data is an exact match between what was reported by the SBO
observers and what is contained in the ZEC Presidential Results by Polling Station files. This
high rate of exact matches between the ZEC Presidential Results by Polling Station and the
SBO data is true across all 23 candidate (including Chamisa and Mnangagwa) as well as
across all 10 provinces. For the 750 polling station the total votes for Chamisa differs by only
236 votes (SBO 146,426 vs ZEC 146,650). Similarly for Mnangagwa the total votes differs by
only 208 votes (SBO 162,359 vs ZEC 162,567).
Analysis of the results for the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections does not
show significant discrepancies. Total valid votes for the parliamentary was 4,773,171
compared to 4,774,878 for the presidential a difference of 43,490 votes or 0.9%. Overall
Chamisa received 508,458 more votes in the presidential election than MDC Alliance did in
the parliamentary elections while Mnangagwa received -22,682 fewer votes in the
presidential election than ZANU-PF did in the parliamentary elections. In those
constituencies where the number of votes in the presidential election was significantly higher
than the parliamentary election (2% or more) Chamisa received 18,224 more votes than
Mnangagwa. Though this analysis does highlight the anomaly of Mutare North constituency
and the increase of 18,349 (131.1%) in presidential compared to parliamentary valid votes
(though this increase was relatively evenly split between Chamisa and Mnanagagwa)
This analysis does not preclude either the MDC Alliance producing its own information calling
into question the presidential results or the court ruling in favor of the MDC Alliance’s petition,
but this analysis provides no evidence to support claims of systematic errors in the tabulation
process. This analysis also does not attempt to quantify the impact of the pre-election issues
such as intimidation, imbalances in registration rates between urban and rural areas or the
lack of access to information (particularly in rural areas).
ZESN’s SBO process data continues to draw attention to issues not with the counting of
ballot papers or tabulation of results, but with concerns about voters in Harare
disproportionately being turned away and not being able to vote as well as assisted voting
which may have resulted in voters not voting their conscience. ZEC data on the number of
voters turned away by polling station as well as the number of voters assisted to vote by
polling station would help determine if these issues unduly influenced the outcome of the
election.
1