Dispatch No. 223 | 20 July 2018
Zimbabwe’s presidential race tightens
one month ahead of July 30 voting
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 223 | Michael Bratton and Eldred V. Masunungure
Summary
For the first time in a generation, Zimbabweans will vote in presidential, parliamentary, and
local government elections on July 30, 2018 without the name of Robert Mugabe at the top
of the ballot. Instead, the race for the presidency – the top prize in Zimbabwean politics – will
pit Mugabe’s long-time collaborator, Emmerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African
National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), against newcomer Nelson Chamisa, who, with the
death of Morgan Tsvangirai in February 2018, inherited the
leadership of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC-T Chamisa and MDC Alliance).
At least on the surface, the 2018 election is unfolding in a
somewhat more open political atmosphere than the country’s
previous contests, which were often marred by violent intimidation and disputed results. The
opposition has been permitted to campaign throughout the country, and access to the
election proceedings has been granted to a wide spectrum of international observers. But
undercurrents of concern remain about the independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission, the illicit distribution of public largesse by the ruling party, and the unknown
intentions of the security forces, which in the past have repeatedly shored up ZANU-PF
against any loss of political power.
Against this backdrop, Zimbabwean voters wonder whether 2018 will break the mold of past
elections by ushering in the country’s first-ever alternation of presidential leadership. Certainly
the electorate longs for a leader who can bring an end to four decades of economic
mismanagement and rising poverty. In response, both Mnangagwa and Chamisa are
campaigning on messages of economic reform and job creation. But a skeptical citizenry
has every reason to question the sincerity and feasibility of politicians’ easy promises and, in
the absence of unbiased information from a polarized and partisan press, to wonder which
political party is actually ahead in the quest to occupy the top offices of state.
This dispatch reports results from a survey of public opinion on the status of the electoral race
conducted one month before the day of voting with a representative sample of 2,400
voting-age adults drawn from all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. The survey was commissioned
by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, Afrobarometer’s core partner in Southern
Africa, and implemented by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, Afrobarometer’s national
partner in Zimbabwe.1
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Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on
democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African countries. Afrobarometer conducts
face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.
Previous surveys were conducted in Zimbabwe in 1999, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2017. For
details, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.
Copyright ©2018
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